It was another good election night for Iowa Poll guru Ann Selzer

A candidate confronted by sagging poll numbers often offers a standard response: The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.

That’s true, of course. That’s when the votes are counted and the candidate’s future in public office is decided.

But candidates would be wise not to discount results if the poll in question is the Iowa Poll.

The findings of the final preelection Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., closely matched Election Day outcomes.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer is always quick to note that polls are a snapshot in time; they’re not predictive. But results from the latest poll, conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, foreshadowed Iowa’s red wave. It showed:

• Republican Chuck Grassley leading Democrat Mike Franken by 12 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race among Iowans who had already voted or planned to do so. Margin of victory in unofficial results: 12 points.

• Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds leading Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear by 17 percentage points. Margin of victory: 19 points.

• Republican challenger Brenna Bird closing in on 40-year Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller, trailing by 2 percentage points. Her margin of victory: 2 points.

• Iowa voters preferring Republicans over Democrats in each of the state’s four congressional districts. Republicans swept all four.

• More Iowa voters viewing inflation as a critical issue, a campaign theme hammered by Republican candidates, than abortion, pushed as a top issue by Democratic candidates.

• Early voting lagging far behind even pre-COVID-era elections. Democrats make use of early voting at a much higher rate than Republicans. Given the sparse early vote, it would have taken an extremely high turnout of Democrats on Tuesday to overcome Republicans’ pattern of heavy Election Day voting. That didn’t happen.

Selzer’s biggest post-election takeaway is that the state’s voters put to rest the question of whether Iowa is a red state. She also thinks that Reynolds, a popular governor, had coattails. Even Miller, the nation’s longest-serving state attorney general, and Mike Fitzgerald, the nation’s longest serving state treasurer after 40 years in office, couldn’t withstand the red wave.

Of the statewide offices, only incumbent Democratic state auditor Rob Sand, who outspent Republican Todd Halbur by hundreds of thousands of dollars, stood in the way of a Republican sweep. Sand declared victory Thursday, but the Associated Press had yet to call the race.

The accuracy of Iowa Polls is no surprise to politics watchers in Iowa, but Selzer has also gained national renown for polling accuracy, in large part due to her polling on Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses. Selzer & Co. is one of only four polling organizations earning an A+ out of nearly 500 rated by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website.

With another caucus cycle looming, Register readers can look forward to seeing polls from Selzer next year that give an early glimpse of how likely Iowa caucusgoers are sizing up the 2024 presidential field.

A statement on the need to guard against disinformation

Some of you may have seen media coverage that Gannett’s production facility here in Des Moines printed publications replicating a newspaper sent to households in Illinois ahead of the midterm election.

Like other Gannett press facilities across the country, the Des Moines production facility routinely takes on jobs for commercial print clients. That’s one of the revenue streams that support our local journalism.

The Register news staff has no connection to decisions about commercial print clients and had no prior knowledge of this particular contract. I will state unequivocally that the Des Moines Register and Gannett are committed to producing accurate, trusted journalism that adheres to the highest professional standards.

The explosion of disinformation disseminated online and through other means threatens our democracy. It damages confidence in real journalism and leaves the public without the accurate information needed to make informed decisions, and it's more important than ever for readers to discern propaganda from impartial journalism.

Carol Hunter is the Register’s executive editor. She wants to hear your questions, story ideas or concerns at 515-284-8545, chunter@registermedia.com, or on Twitter: @carolhunter.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: It was another good election night for Iowa Poll guru Ann Selzer