Another massive Chinese rocket body is plummeting towards Earth and no one knows where it will crash
Another Chinese rocket body is plummeting uncontrolled towards Earth at a “yet-to-be-determined location” in the coming days, experts have cautioned.
Following the launch of the final module of China’s Tiangong space station on a Long March 5B heavy-lift rocket, the Chinese space agency did not perform a control deorbit of the launch vehicle’s core stage.
Experts, including Ted Muelhaupt, a consultant with The Aerospace Corporation, say this means the rocket body that weighs over 20 tons will crash to Earth in the coming days above a location that has not been determined yet.
“For those who’ve been tracking the previous versions of this: Here we go again,” Mr Muelhaupt said at a press briefing on Wednesday, Space.com reported.
This is not the first time a Chinese rocket body has tumbled towards Earth after launch.
There have been three other instances in the recent past when the country’s rocket has crashed uncontrollably to Earth, posing a potential risk of loss of lives and property.
In an @AerospaceCorp briefing, Ted Muelhaupt says the risk of any casualties from the upcoming CZ-5B renter is between 1:1000 and 1:230, far worse than the internationally accepted threshold of 1:10,000. But the risk to you individually, though, is very small: 6 in 10 trillion.
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) November 2, 2022
In July, an out-of-control core stage of a Chinese Long March rocket burned up over the Indian Ocean, drawing criticism from Nasa.
After delivering a new module to the space station, this rocket also tumbled out of control and fell back to Earth over the Indian Ocean near Malaysia.
Nasa administrator Bill Nelson criticised China for not providing better data on the projected re-entry path of the rocket.
“The People’s Republic of China did not share specific trajectory information as their Long March 5B rocket fell back to Earth,” he had tweeted.
“All spacefaring nations should follow established best practices, and do their part to share this type of information in advance to allow reliable predictions of potential debris impact risk, especially for heavy-lift vehicles, like the Long March 5B, which carry a significant risk of loss of life and property,” he said.
Another Chinese Long March rocket, launched in April last year, also tumbled out of control on reentry and landed in the Indian Ocean, drawing criticism from Nasa.
“It’s clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris,” Mr Nelson had said then.
China’s Long March 5B heavy lift rocket launched on Monday and now the core stage is tumbling uncontrollably back to Earth.
Like it did in May 2020 (Ivory Coast)
and May 2021 (Indian Ocean)
and July 2022 (Indonesia + Malaysia)@AerospaceCorp predicts reentry early Sat morning pic.twitter.com/VGYk4EUpPC— Emily Calandrelli (@TheSpaceGal) November 2, 2022
China has maintained that the risk of damage to aviation or ground facilities from such rocket body re-entry is “extremely low”.
“It appears China won its gamble. But it was still reckless,” astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell tweeted after the April incident.
Experts, including, Dr McDowell, have argued that the safe landing of rocket debris in oceans is not always guaranteed.
For instance, debris from a Long March 5B rocket, launched in May 2020 struck the Ivory Coast during re-entry and damaged several buildings.
The rocket body from the latest launch is expected to crash into Earth sometime in the coming days, likely early on Saturday, according to The Aerospace Corporation.