Another non-soon? Drier, hotter than normal conditions predicted for Arizona's monsoon

The National Weather Service predicts that most of Arizona is going to have below normal precipitation during the monsoon with above normal temperatures, meaning Arizonans can face a hot and dry summer.

Far western areas of the state such as Kingman and Yuma have equal chances for above, near, or below normal precipitation.

"For the monsoon season, above normal temperatures are favored this summer with a slight tilt toward slightly below normal precipitation," said Isaac Smith, National Weather Service Phoenix meteorologist.

This is an abrupt change from the past two years of wet monsoons that brought record-breaking rain to the state. The monsoon in 2022 tied for the seventh wettest July-September on record with an average rain of 2.23 inches in Phoenix. The 2021 season ranked as ninth wettest on record, according to the weather service's data.

As we approach the standard Arizona monsoon season start date on June 15, conditions may look slightly different from years past, especially regarding the current conditions of the state heading into the season of thunderstorms and flooding.

"We've been in a pretty cool pattern so far so it's possible we could see a slight delay in the start of the monsoon season," Smith said.

Earlier this year, the state experienced an extremely wet winter, which considerably reduced drought coverage with only the far western side of the state ranking in with abnormally dry conditions.

The monsoon usually brings in about half of Arizona's annual rainfall, which replenishes water sources and lowers summer temperatures. Last year's record-breaking rainfall brought in enough water to help short-term drought conditions in the state.

Wildfire concerns

Since drought conditions are mostly inapplicable throughout the state currently, the lack of rain this monsoon doesn't bring increasing concerns. However, the grass/brush growth from the winter's rain brings potential wildfire concerns, especially in elevations below 6,000 feet.

Low water with high temperatures brings a disastrous breeding ground for wildfires, and this year may be no exception as the National Weather Service predicts above normal temperatures for the entire state of Arizona from July through September.

Last year ranked one of the fifth warmest years since 1895 even with abundant rainfall, so this year's heat may have the potential to break records.

Lightning strikes behind Camelback Mountain as rain falls during a monsoon storm on July 16, 2022.
Lightning strikes behind Camelback Mountain as rain falls during a monsoon storm on July 16, 2022.

Smith warned that all the typical hazards that are seen during the monsoon will be present regardless of the predicted lower-than-average rain. This includes lightning, flash flooding and dust storms, which can turn dangerous very quickly and have the potential to lead to injuries or fatalities.

Last summer's weather brought more than 30 separate flood events in Flagstaff and major flash flooding in Apache Junction in July.

"We did see some flooding across the state last year," Smith said. "A lot of the state did see above normal rainfall so that did result in more flash flooding than maybe we would see in an average year."

Smith said flooding is never predictable and one unexpected thunderstorm could produce heavy rainfall to incite dangerous conditions.

"People need to remember to 'turn around, don't drown' if they encounter a flooded roadway," Smith said.

The latest storm and weather warnings can be found on The Arizona Republic's continually updated weather alert page using up-to-the-moment data from the National Weather Service.

What causes Arizona's monsoon?

According to the weather service in Phoenix, high pressure in the atmosphere over northern Mexico strengthens and drifts northward during the summer months, which causes a reversal in the weather pattern across the Southwest.

While storms typically move from west to east in the spring, storms will move from east to west in the summer, according to reporting from The Republic.

This flow then causes high levels of moisture to gather in the atmosphere across the desert landscape as tropical air moves north, according to the weather service.

With the combination of summer heat and moisture, conditions are more likely to become more favorable for periodic rain showers and thunderstorms.

How to stay safe during the monsoon

The Phoenix Police Department has devised a list of resources and safety tips for drivers to consider while on the roads during the monsoon:

Tips from the site:

  • Do not attempt to drive through a flooded road. The depth of water is not always obvious. The roadbed may be washed out under the water, and you could be stranded or trapped.

  • Six inches of water can cause most cars to lose control.

  • Two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles, including SUVs and pickups.

  • Don't drive around barricades. Turn around and go the other way.

  • Treat non-working or flashing traffic signals at intersections as a four-way stop. Proceed with caution.

Additionally, the Arizona Emergency Information Network says flooding can cause power outages, traffic issues, damage to buildings and landslides.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona monsoon 2023: Drier and hotter than normal season predicted