Another prominent draftnik links Pitts and the Dolphins — but this time with a twist

There’s a growing sentiment among those who make money analyzing and predicting the draft that Kyle Pitts will be the Miami Dolphins’ pick at No. 6 — if he’s there.

Of course, that’s a big if.

By moving from third to sixth, Chris Grier surrendered the guaranteed ability to take the best non-quarterback in the draft.

The Atlanta Falcons, who pick fourth, now have that power.

But Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN’s dean of draft prognostication, has laid out a scenario in which the Dolphins get that power back.

In his latest mock draft, Kiper has the Dolphins trading back up, from No. 6 to No. 4, and taking the electric tight end from the University of Florida.

Kiper details his vision in an item posted Tuesday:

“We know the Falcons have talked to other teams about moving out of the No. 4 spot, and they could be open to the highest bidder. There’s a catch, though; they surely don’t want to move too far down, or else they’ll miss on their guy. So this trade allows them to add assets and still pick at No. 6.

“I don’t think it would cost the Dolphins a first-round pick in 2022, but it’s tough to predict without knowing who else is bidding. For this exercise, I think it could take something like a second- and third-round pick next year for Miami to move up two spots. (The Dolphins have an extra third-rounder in 2022 from the 49ers.)

“Why would the Dolphins move up two spots? To ensure that they get their guy, and to ensure that another team doesn’t trade into that spot to take that guy. Cincinnati at No. 5 could also take the prospect the Dolphins want.”

Should this scenario come to fruition, the Dolphins will have made three trades to move from third to fourth.

In this hypothetical, here’s the aggregate draft capital that would have exchanged hands by the Dolphins moving down one spot (where they end up taking the player they would have selected at 3):

The Dolphins would gain a fifth-rounder in 2021 (from the Eagles) and a first-rounder in 2023 (from the 49ers), while giving up a fourth-rounder in 2021 (to the Eagles) and a second-rounder in 2022 (to the Falcons).

In Kiper’s scenario, Atlanta would also get a 2022 third-round pick from the Dolphins, but Miami could simply flip the third-rounder it got from San Francisco. The Dolphins also own the 49ers’ first-rounder in 2022, but the Eagles have the rights to the Dolphins’ first-rounder next year, so that’s also a wash.

The big question: how much more valuable is a fifth-rounder this April and first-rounder in two years than a 2021 fourth-rounder and a 2022 second-rounder? Hard to say exactly, because there’s no way to know how high that 49ers pick in 2023 will be.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume all future picks will be in the middle of their respective rounds. And let’s apply the generally agreed-upon 10 percent annual depreciation penalty that comes by acquiring future picks.

And let’s use the DraftTek’s trade value chart to as our valuation model.

▪ 2021 net points: Minus-121.6 (The Dolphins lost 100 points to go from third to fourth and 21.6 to drop from 123rd to 156th).

▪ 2022 net points: Minus-378 (The Dolphins lost 90 percent of the 420 points they would by surrendering a 2021 mid-second rounder).

▪ 2023 net points: Plus-810 (The Dolphins gained 81 percent of the 1000 points they would by acquiring a 2021 mid-first rounder).

In all, the Dolphins would come out ahead by 310.4 points — which is the value of a late-second round pick in 2021.

Not a blockbuster haul, but certainly not terrible, considering that if they take Pitts at 4, they almost certainly would have taken him at No. 3.

“You didn’t see this one coming, did you?” Kiper wrote of the Dolphins jumping from 6 to 4 to take Pitts. “All along we’ve talked about the Dolphins adding weapons for Tua Tagovailoa, and Pitts is the ultimate weapon in this class. Why couldn’t they take him? This gives Miami four really good pass-catchers around Tagovailoa in Pitts, Will Fuller V, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Pitts and Gesicki are versatile enough to play inline or out wide. They’re matchup nightmares for defenses. Another thing to note: Several teams have Pitts at No. 2 overall on their boards. Miami also gets to keep its pick at No. 18 to get help on defense.”

Kiper’s guesstimate for the Dolphins pick at 18? Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye.