Answer Woman: Will Asheville have a white Christmas this year?

With “A Biltmore Christmas” getting Asheville folks in the holiday spirit, one reader is wondering if we’ll have our very own Hallmark-esque white Christmas. As this reporter has never experienced the magic of a Christmas morning snowfall, I was eager to find out Asheville’s chances of my own fairytale come true.

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Question: Last winter was a bummer in terms of snow — I don’t like a lot, but I like at least a little bit. Any chance of a white Christmas this year, or any snow this winter?

Answer: Unfortunately, the National Weather Service can’t forecast exactly when and how much snow is likely to flurry down on Asheville this winter. It all depends on the overall weather pattern, and even forecasting precipitation a week away can get tricky.

But there is one glimmer of hope for those of us wishing for snow on Christmas, and its name is El Niño.

This type of weather pattern, which describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has an effect over here, in the Southeast United States. During an El Niño year, “we typically see more cloud cover and precipitation during the winter months,” said meteorologist Ashley Rehnberg with the National Weather Service.

“It’s possible that we could see more snowfall compared to last year, but it’s not a guarantee,” Rehnberg told the Citizen Times, since we are currently in an El Niño year.

Higher elevations around Western North Carolina have already had their first glimpses of snow, forcing the Blue Ridge Parkway to close 11 miles north of Asheville as early as October and 114 miles of the scenic route on Dec. 6.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expecting a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this year, which may mean more snow in the mountains as jets streams, like rivers of air, carry more moisture and precipitation along the southern tier of the United States.

The NOAA released a map depicting snowfall trends from January through March during moderate-to-strong El Niño years compared to the average snowfall from 1991-2020. A bright blue strip falls over Asheville in WNC, indicating that the area may get more snowfall than usual.

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The last time Asheville received a Christmas snowfall was in 2010, when Asheville Regional Airport clocked 6.5 inches and downtown Asheville saw 8.1 inches of snow.

The snowiest month for Asheville is typically January, which averages 4.1 inches, according to Rehnberg. Last year, Asheville saw just over 10 inches of snow, with most falling in January.

December typically sees 0.9 inches of snowfall. However, last December was a “very dry” month, without a single instance of measurable snow, Rehnberg said.

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This reader was right about last winter being a “bummer in terms of snow.” The last time a measurable amount of snow fell from Asheville’s skies was the winter before last, with 0.3 inches measured in March 2022 and 10.6 inches measured that January.

Despite recent miniscule amounts of snow, Asheville does have a history of sizeable snowfall.

Dubbed the "Blizzard of '93,” the largest snowfall in the city since 1869 happened in March 1993, when 18.2 inches of snow came sweeping through Asheville, according to NWS. That’s not including the heaviest snowfall of all — Dec. 5-6 in 1886, when an estimated 26-33 inches fell, according to unofficial records.

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Ryley Ober is the Public Safety Reporter for Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA Today Network. Email her at rober@gannett.com and follow her on Twitter @ryleyober

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Answer Woman: Will Asheville have a white Christmas this year?