Anwar Is One Compromise Away From Finally Leading Malaysia

Philip J. Heijmans
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Veteran opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who has come tantalizingly close to leading Malaysia during his tumultuous political career, is suddenly on the cusp of clinching the top job -- but a final hurdle stands in his way.

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Anwar’s reformist coalition won 82 parliamentary seats in Saturday’s election, the biggest haul among the competing blocs. While it’s short of the majority needed to form a government, it puts him in prime position to forge an alliance to do so.

The only catch? The 75-year-old politician may have to do a controversial deal with his longtime nemesis.

Anwar and his main rival are in a race to secure enough support from other parties after elections over the weekend resulted in a hung parliament for the first time in Malaysian history. Both Anwar and former Prime Minister Muhyuddin Yassin have claimed to have wooed enough lawmakers to form a government. Party leaders have until Tuesday afternoon to inform the nation’s monarch of their choice of prime minister and the alliances they have formed.

Barisan Nasional, the pro-Malay coalition that has ruled Malaysia almost without interruption since independence in 1957, finds itself in the unlikely position of kingmaker after a washout performance left it far short of forming a government but with enough seats to tip the balance to decide who does.

Anwar said Monday he was optimistic of heading a coalition government with BN and was now awaiting a formal decision from the former ruling bloc.

But cutting a deal with BN, which has the United Malays National Organisation as its linchpin, may meet resistance in the self-styled reformer Anwar’s own camp. In a messy campaign characterized by race and religion -- part of a long tradition of identity politics in Malaysia -- Anwar’s multiracial Pakatan Harapan coalition found little in common with its staunchly pro-Malay counterparts.

“It would be difficult as Anwar may alienate his own party members,” said Asrul Hadi Abdullah, deputy managing director of advisory firm BowerGroupAsia.

In a political culture dominated by personalities and loosely built alliances, no eventuality can be ruled out as the horse-trading continues over securing a majority. The question now is whether Anwar can get an alliance with BN over the line without angering his coalition partners and voters in urban areas, given BN’s links to the 1MDB scandal.

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Not making a deal could see the veteran politician miss out on his long-held dream once again.

Former premier Muhyiddin, whose Perikatan Nasional coalition won 73 seats, had already ruled out working with Anwar.

Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan campaigned on addressing the rising cost of living, capitalizing on growing anxiety about the country’s already fragile economy.

The coalition also committed to undertaking key reforms, from introducing greater separation of powers to regulating political funding. It took a hard line on corruption, lobbying for financial transparency among civil servants.

Muhyiddin, who led Malaysia during the Covid-19 pandemic, and PN pledged to establish an anti-corruption unit, but also focused on other issues, including youth representation in government, digital access in schools and greater incentives for gig workers.

Becoming prime minister would be a defining moment in Anwar’s decades-long political career. He was in line to take over as prime minister from Mahathir Mohamad after the two joined together to win the 2018 election, ousting BN after six decades in power. Yet Mahathir repeatedly delayed the handover, creating divisions within the ruling bloc and eventually leading to its collapse.

Anwar was also considered in line to succeed Mahathir in the 1990s before he was fired in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis, after which he spent six years in prison on convictions for abuse of power and sodomy, the latter a crime in the largely Islamic nation.

UMNO called for an early election last month in a bid to solidify power and rise above a slew of graft charges. UMNO leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi faces multiple corruption charges in court while former Prime Minister Najib Razak began a 12-year prison sentence this year for his role in the 1MDB scandal.

Anwar and outgoing Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob have shown willingness to set aside their differences in the past, signing an unprecedented confidence and supply agreement last year designed to bring some stability to the country’s politics. Legislative reforms to stop party-hopping among lawmakers were also passed with bipartisan support.

Another question is whether BN will be able to accept a deal with Anwar.

“In BN there are groups that are against cooperating with Anwar,” said Awang Azman Awang Pawi, an associate professor with the Academy of Malay Studies at Universiti Malaya. “It is quite complex.”

While a coalition between the two pro-Malay groups may seem a better fit, divisions between them could prove hard to overcome, said Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia.

“Those ties have been badly bruised,” she said. Anwar “has a path.”

(Updates with Anwar comments in sixth paragraph. An earlier version corrected a title)

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