Can anyone beat Donald Trump in Iowa? 40 years of Iowa Polls show the race isn't over

Former President Donald Trump has overshadowed the Republican presidential race for 2024, but an analysis of Iowa Poll data for every Iowa Caucus since 1984 suggests it's not too late for another candidate to surge.

In an October Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers chose Trump as their first choice for president — putting him 27 percentage points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Despite facing 91 criminal charges, Trump has only widened his lead in the race.

But Trump's rivals insist they can still win Iowa.

Gov. Kim Reynolds, who endorsed DeSantis, told reporters in November that "Iowa breaks late" and DeSantis has potential to win. And Haley has pushed her Iowa crowds to rally their friends and family to support her on caucus night, emphasizing that a strong caucus finish is essential for her to overtake Trump in the South Carolina primary.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the Iowa Poll, said she's learned to "never say never" about the caucuses.

"We’ve seen unexpected changes in poll standings in the very last days of polling ahead of the caucuses," Selzer told the Register. "Donald Trump’s lead looks insurmountable, but you won’t hear this data geek say it’s a lock."

When do winners in the Iowa Caucuses typically surge in the polls?

First-place finishers for the past five Iowa Caucuses — with the exception of Hillary Clinton in 2016 — all surged to the lead sometime in the final months before the caucus, from November through January.

In the crowded 2020 Democratic contest, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg took the lead in a November 2019 Iowa Poll, with 25% of likely Democratic caucusgoers naming him as their first choice.

But with just weeks before Caucus Day, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders jumped ahead in the Iowa Poll, winning 20% support from likely caucusgoers. Buttigieg fell to third place in the poll, with 16%.

Ultimately, Buttigieg and Sanders were virtually tied after that hectic caucus night. Buttigieg won 26.2% of caucusgoers and Sanders won 26.1%.

On the other side of the aisle, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leaped to the top of the race in the final two months before the competitive 2016 Republican caucuses.

Cruz was polling comfortably near the rest of the pack in the summer of 2015, though he lagged significantly behind early favorites Dr. Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, and Trump. In the October 2015 Iowa Poll, 10% of likely Republican caucusgoers chose Cruz as their first choice, putting him in third place.

Cruz’s support skyrocketed to 31% in the December 2015 Iowa Poll, overtaking both Trump and Carson. Although Cruz's support faltered somewhat in the final weeks before the caucus, he won the Republican 2016 Iowa Caucuses with 27.6% of the vote.

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However, a sudden jump in the Iowa Poll does not guarantee lasting momentum for a candidate.

In the 2012 race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich shot to 25% and first place in a November Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers. His lead disappeared by the end of December, and Gingrich was a distant fourth on caucus night.

Each presidential cycle is different, but here's how past caucus victors have fared in Des Moines Register Iowa Polls:

• Hillary Clinton stayed at the top of 2015 and 2016 Iowa Polls, as rival Bernie Sanders climbed steadily closer. Clinton eked out a narrow victory over Sanders on caucus night.

• Rick Santorum was tied for sixth place in November 2011. He shot up in the December poll to 15%, though he still lagged behind leaders Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. His late momentum carried through caucus night, when he was virtually tied with Romney for first place — and later was declared the winner.

• Mike Huckabee surged in the November 2007 Iowa Poll from third place with 12%, to first place, with 29%. The poll was published in early December, one month before Huckabee won the Iowa Caucuses with 34.4% of the vote.

• Barack Obama led the Iowa Poll for the first time in November 2007, with 26% of likely caucusgoers marking him as their first choice. He widened his lead over opponents Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the late December poll, ultimately winning the caucuses by a nearly 8 percentage-point margin.

• John Kerry was in third place in November 2003, behind Democratic leaders Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. He leaped to first in a January 2004 poll, from 15% to 26%, then won the caucus.

Donald Trump dominates race as a quasi-incumbent, but has his own expectations to meet

Former President Trump's candidacy has thrown the Iowa Caucuses playbook into question.

His rivals in the race need to not only introduce themselves to Iowans, but also make a case for why they would be a better choice than Trump, who continues to lead by double-digits in polling nationwide.

But the high expectations for Trump's campaign in the 2024 Iowa Caucuses may present their own challenges, according to longtime former Des Moines Register political reporter and columnist David Yepsen.

"If he's a weak winner, if most of the vote is going elsewhere to other candidates, that's going to be bad news for Trump," Yepsen said.

Yepsen compared the race to the Democratic primary in 1984, when former Vice President Walter Mondale dominated the field. Mondale led two Iowa Polls before the caucuses by more than 20 percentage points, then he won the Iowa Caucuses with 45% of the vote.

But it was U.S. Sen. Gary Hart, the second-place finisher on caucus night with 15% of the vote, who gained momentum out of Iowa. Just a week later, Hart won an upset victory in the New Hampshire primary.

"Hart came in second, got a ton of media attention and energy, and went on to New Hampshire," Yespen said. "Mondale, within a few weeks, was on the ropes."

Could a similar situation play out for Trump in 2024?

"Is Trump going to win? Will it be big enough to impress anybody, or will people shrug?" Yepsen said. "Trump needs the storyline to be about Trump, not about this energetic challenger."

The Trump campaign held an early December event urging supporters to caucus, playing instructional videos about how to register with the Republican Party, find their caucus location, and participate on Caucus Day on Jan. 15. Trump promised special white ballcaps to anyone who signed up as a precinct captain.

"Bring as many people as you can to vote, and do the caucus like nobody’s ever done the caucus before," Trump told a tightly packed crowd. "And we’re going to win that. … The more we win, they’re going to see that signal for the November election.”

Only time will tell if he's right.

Tim Webber contributed reporting.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Do DeSantis, Haley have time to catch Trump? What past Iowa Polls show