Argentina's conservatives gamble for survival on odd couple Milei and Macri

By Lucila Sigal

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Javier Milei shot to prominence lambasting Argentina's traditional political elite. Now the radical presidential election frontrunner is the mainstream conservatives' best shot at clinging onto power.

Left without their own candidate in the contest, the center-right has made an uneasy alliance of sorts with Milei that could push the libertarian over the line in Sunday's run-off vote against Peronist economy minister Sergio Massa.

Milei has won the backing of business magnate and former conservative President Mauricio Macri, as well as the main conservative bloc's presidential nominee Patricia Bullrich, knocked out in third place in an October first round.

It is a big gamble for the bloc, Together for Change (JxC), which has been one of Argentina's dominant political forces in recent decades, but now faces being torn apart. Many in the group disagree with supporting Milei, a magnetic but volatile former TV pundit who some compare to U.S. ex-president Donald Trump and Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro.

Although they do not agree with all Milei's views - such as his plans to dollarize the economy and loosen gun restrictions - Macri and Bullrich say they back him because he represents change and an end to government policies they see as disastrous.

If Milei wins, the two could end up with important leverage in his administration. If Milei loses, it could precipitate the fracturing of the conservative coalition between more right-wing and moderate wings.

"The fate of Argentina's political chessboard, alliances and moving parts will depend a lot on who wins the election," said Shila Vilker, director of consultancy Trespuntozero.

Mariel Fornoni, director of the consulting firm Management & Fit, said the conservative bloc, once favorite to win the election, was already breaking apart.

"I think that Together for Change is going to be reconfigured," she said, adding that the different groups in the coalition had diverged too far in their views. "It seems to me today they have visions of entirely different countries."

GAMBLE FOR MILEI, TOO

Milei and Massa are now competing for the votes that went to Bullrich.

Massa had a seven-point lead in the first round but is being hurt by inflation that has hit 143%, the highest since 1991. He is trying to win voters with pledges to protect the Peronists' welfare safety net.

Milei, meanwhile - who has criticized ties with China and railed against Pope Francis - has moderated his rhetoric since the conservative endorsement in an apparent bid to lure more middle-ground voters.

He has also stopped appearing at rallies wielding a chainsaw - a reference to his plans to cut down the size of government -but has held firm about signature policy plans, including controversial ones like shutting the central bank.

The tie-up with the conservatives is a gamble for Milei, too, who describes the political elite as a "caste" and had previously called Bullrich a "child killer"; she had slammed his ideas as "bad and dangerous".

"There may be some Milei voters who get angry at an alliance with the 'caste', just as there may be Macri voters who get angry at an alliance with Milei," said Fornoni.

Milei's coalition said Macri's support was not a formal tie-up. "There is no alliance with Macri," a coalition spokesperson said to Reuters.

Nonetheless, the arrangement may have given Milei a slight edge ahead of Sunday's vote, with some voters saying it creates a stronger anti-government alliance.

"It shows that it's not just about the victory of one candidate but real change and the fight against the current ruling party," said 23-year-old student Ezequiel Salinas, who plans to vote for Milei.

How the Milei-Macri coupling shakes out remains to be seen. In the final presidential debate on Sunday, it was notable that neither Bullrich nor Macri were present in support of Milei, amid talk of tension between them.

"We don't know today what power Macri will have, if Macri will end up absorbing Milei or Milei absorbing Macri. There is still no formalized alliance," Fornoni said.

(Reporting by Lucila Sigal; Additional reporting by Nicolás Misculin and Candelaria Grimberg; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Rosalba O'Brien)