Arizona abortion rights advocates optimistic for 2024 as voters extend post-Roe win streak

When Ohio voters on Tuesday made clear they wanted to protect abortion access in their state's constitution, they handed reproductive rights advocates another win in an unbroken record since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year.

Abortion rights supporters and Democratic leaders in Arizona say that winning streak, and elections Tuesday in Ohio and Virginia, offer a promising bellwether for what will be a critical 2024 cycle in the Grand Canyon State.

"When abortion is on the ballot, the Democrats win," Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Yolanda Bejarano said Wednesday.

But some say not so fast when it comes to drawing conclusions. There are key differences between issues on the ballot, turnout and timing that make it difficult to compare the mid-cycle races across the nation to what will likely be a high-turnout election in Arizona. A lot can change over the course of a year, and that's especially true in swing-state Arizona.

Next November, Arizonans will be asked to vote for president and U.S. senator at the top of their ticket. Ballots will also include all 90 seats in the Legislature and several ballot measures. Signature gathering is underway for the Arizona Abortion Access Act, a voter initiative that would protect abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court last year overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark case guaranteeing a right to an abortion, voters in states across the country have sided with abortion access every time they've voted on the issue.

"This latest victory is just another proof point that voters across the country support abortion rights, and they will show up to protect those rights and reproductive freedom at the ballot box every time they're asked to," said Jodi Liggett, a senior adviser to Reproductive Freedom for All Arizona. The group, formerly called NARAL AZ, is among those supporting the ballot initiative.

Voters in Kansas, a traditionally red state, were the first to codify abortion rights last year just months after Roe was overturned. Voters in California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Vermont and finally, Ohio, have since affirmed abortion rights or shot down attempts to undermine access. That gives supporters in Arizona a confidence boost going into next year, though Liggett said that won't ease the push ahead.

"It doesn't mean we can just sit back and go, 'Oh, cool, this is on autopilot.' No, no, no," she said. "But I do think it is so reassuring, and it's reassuring to the whole movement."

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Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy and its political arm, cautioned about making comparisons across states. The center has played a prominent role backing abortion restrictions in Arizona for many years.

"Arizona is not Ohio, and it is not Michigan," Herrod said.

"The state’s proposed abortion amendment goes far beyond what Arizonans support," she said. "It removes reasonable safety standards for abortion clinics, eliminates the required medical doctor, it doesn’t take women’s health seriously, but gives very broad leeway to who can provide abortions, and it shuts out mothers and fathers when their daughter needs them most."

Reproductive rights advocates across the nation have found ballot initiatives to be a fruitful way to work around Republican policymakers who, since Roe was overturned, have limited or banned abortion access outright.

Efforts are underway in about a dozen states to put questions related to abortion before voters, according to The Associated Press. Voters in two states, New York and Maryland, will vote on the issue after lawmakers there referred it to the ballot, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

One group backing the ballot measure approach in Ohio and Arizona is The Fairness Project. The group was the single largest financial supporter of Arizona's abortion initiative through September, according to campaign finance reports filed with the secretary of state. The group contributed $2.3 million to the committee backing the initiative, nearly all of the committee's fundraising haul in its early days.

“Ballot measures are one of – if not the most – powerful tools we have to defend reproductive rights in a post-Roe nation, and this work will continue," Fairness Project Executive Director Kelly Hall said in a statement. "Next, we are ready to fight alongside Arizona for Abortion Access in 2024 to secure reproductive freedom for all in another crucial battleground state.”

What does abortion momentum mean for legislative control?

Arizona Democrats have cast the momentum around abortion rights, and distaste for the culture war politics of many GOP lawmakers, as the perfect combination to oust Republican majorities from the state Legislature. That is a refrain heard for years around the state Capitol, but also one that has taken on a new reality since the emergence of former President Donald Trump.

Some look to Virginia's divided government, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin sought to win GOP majorities in the Legislature on Tuesday. Abortion was a central issue in many of those races, and Youngkin argued he needed friendly majorities to enact his agenda, including limiting abortions to 15 weeks of pregnancy.

That mirrors Arizona's existing law, which could turn into its own wildcard on the political map.

In December, the Arizona Supreme Court will hear a case that will settle whether the 15-week law enacted last year, or a pre-statehood near-total ban, is the prevailing law. Abortion rights advocates have telegraphed an easier path ahead should the century-old law be put in place.

But voters rebuffed Youngkin on Tuesday, flipping control of the House of Delegates to Democrats and continuing the slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

Leaders of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the national party's effort to win state legislatures, have Arizona in their crosshairs. They identified the Grand Canyon State as a top priority during a call with reporters on Wednesday. Leaders of the group foreshadowed abortion, and lessons from Virginia, as a mobilizing and decisive issue in their campaigns next year.

But Ryan O'Daniel, a Republican consultant who worked on the campaigns of former Gov. Doug Ducey and U.S. Sen. John McCain, explained why Arizonans shouldn't jump to read tea leaves from Virginia's statehouse races and Ohio's abortion measure.

“What makes each of those states unique and different from Arizona is that they had legislative races, or they had an abortion ballot initiative,” he said.

With abortion rights and every Legislative seat on the Arizona ballot at the same time, voters of all political affiliations who are passionate about abortion policy will have “an outlet, and it's going to let some steam off the kettle."

“Whereas Virginia, they didn't have an opportunity to vote for a specific ballot initiative with language specific to abortion, so they had to pick candidates and specify candidates that were reflective of their views,” O’Daniel said.

That could mean a candidate’s view on abortion rights takes a backseat to other concerns, like inflation or public safety, he said.

Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona abortion rights groups hopeful after Ohio, Virginia elections