Has Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs mastered divided government? This year will test her skills

Standing before a room of business leaders at a swanky event in Chandler, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs touted her accomplishments from her first year as governor.

Those include a $150 million deposit into a state fund to develop affordable housing and a sweeping road map made public earlier that November day that proposed reforming how Arizona handles its groundwater.

The Democratic governor's first year in office will be noted for scarce policy wins, including those measures she touted in Chandler and in a circuit of public appearances around the state. The history books will document growing pains in the Hobbs administration, a single-year veto record and numerous battles with Republican legislative leaders on policy and Hobbs' nominees.

A staff shake-up midway through the year set Hobbs on a more strategic path to deal with divided government and the political hurdles it brings, seeming to leave the governor on stronger footing going into her second year.

Still, wins might be harder to come by this year.

Hobbs' second year as the state's 24th governor will bring a new set of challenges and put to the test the learning curve that came with her first year in office. She has pledged to unseat Republican majorities in the Legislature, and the state's budget forecast puts the balance in the red.

Hobbs is expected to give her second State of the State, an annual speech to lawmakers that serves as an outline of her policy goals, on Jan. 8. But she has signaled some top concerns.

"You'll see most of it in our State of the State address the first day of session," Hobbs told reporters in mid-December. "But the things I've been talking about, water, housing, education, workforce development, those are top priorities."

'Generally a disaster' or 'a big feather under her cap'? Politicos split on Hobbs' first term

Hobbs was sworn in on Jan. 2, 2023, in a private ceremony that would become the first example of many that raised doubts about her campaign statements to be transparent. She took over the office while also facing legal challenges from defeated GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake contesting Hobbs' election. Lake has never conceded her loss.

"The dynamics from the start were just unlike any other gubernatorial transition," said Lorna Romero Ferguson, a former legislative director for Republican Gov. Jan Brewer. "You have divided government. You have a contested gubernatorial election on top of the normal transition chaos that happens."

In her first in-person encounter with the Legislature, Hobbs delivered a State of the State speech that prompted some of the most conservative lawmakers to turn their backs or walk out — a visual display of feuds to come.

"She had a really strong State of the State speech about water, about vouchers, but then there didn't seem to be a plan about how to go and execute that," said longtime consultant Chuck Coughlin, who worked for former Republican governors Fife Symington and Brewer.

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Hobbs took the easy route on her first budget. The spending plan drained the state's about $2 billion surplus to buy bipartisanship: Lawmakers from both parties were given allowances to dedicate to pet projects, some of which may need to be clawed back this year when a deficit is on the horizon.

Year one showed a lack of clarity on Hobbs' policy goals and an underestimation of her power as governor to negotiate with GOP majorities, Coughlin said, though he noted there's a first-year learning curve.

"First-year governorships are generally a disaster," he said. The first year is about understanding what relationships are necessary to build majorities to advance policy through the Legislature, he said.

After the Democratic governor's first-year budget was praised by Republicans and criticized by Democrats, Hobbs shook up her staff, which she had initially built with trusted allies from her term as secretary of state from 2018 to 2022.

Hobbs replaced her chief of staff with former state lawmaker Chad Campbell and has restructured other positions within the top ranks of the office. Coughlin said those changes already have shown the Hobbs administration is better able to communicate with lawmakers.

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Hobbs' compromise on Proposition 400, an extension of a transportation tax that will go to Maricopa County voters, and the budget showed she was able to make tough decisions and take on criticism, Romero Ferguson said. Today's tight margins in the Legislature, where Republicans have single-seat majorities, mean Hobbs inevitably will anger some Democrats, Romero Ferguson said.

"From just a governing standpoint, and being able to reach a bipartisan compromise, I think that was a big feather under her cap to show that she can do it," Romero Ferguson said.

Hobbs pledged to pull back the universal expansion of vouchers, something she is likely to take another run at this year even though sweeping change is sure to be blocked by Republicans.

Hobbs shaped policy on abortion prosecutions, the death penalty, health care and benefits for the state's workforce through 27 executive orders. She tallied 143 uses of her veto stamp, which she inherited from the state's last Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano. Hobbs unseated Napolitano as the single-year veto record-holder, busting through Napolitano's record of 58 vetoes in 2005.

Dawn Penich-Thacker, a Democratic consultant, credited Hobbs for action on water policy, both by canceling leases that allowed foreign farming company Fondomonte to use water unchecked and by curbing new housing development in suburban Phoenix communities that rely on groundwater.

"It feels to me that she kind of changed the conversation in doing those two moves," Penich-Thacker said. "Water was on radars as an issue, but I don't think that people, until she did that, really understood how that might become actionable."

What voters think of Hobbs' first year

Arizonans offered mixed reviews of Hobbs' first year. It's a reflection of her responsibility to lead a state that is almost evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters as well as the hyper-partisanship of politics.

“I just don't tolerate her very much,” said Kerri Medema, 62, a Phoenix Republican who works in a customer service call center.

Medema said Hobbs seemed to skirt questions in interviews that Medema has watched. And she criticized the governor for taking down a makeshift wall made of shipping containers at the state’s southern border that was put up by former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey.

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Hobbs overstepped her executive authority in giving Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes sole power to prosecute abortion cases, taking that power from county attorneys who are elected by Arizonans, Medema said.

“In my opinion, she's setting herself up to be like the czar of Arizona,” Medema said. “I don’t feel that’s her job to do. I was not impressed with that at all.”

James Eddlemon, a 65-year-old helicopter mechanic from Kingman, said Hobbs had a fine first year when taking the political circumstances into account. He applauded her move in May to cut off sober living homes that prey particularly on members of Arizona's tribal communities.

But he said he believed Hobbs could have pushed harder to advocate for public education funding, one of his top issues as an independent voter.

"She's made some mistakes, but we all do, that's a given," he said, adding the governor needed to be firmer on those issues when dealing with the Legislature.

Shawn Banzhaf gave Hobbs a standing ovation when she spoke of her accomplishments at the Chandler Chamber of Commerce event in late November. Banzhaf, a Democrat and executive director of the Pat Tillman Veterans Center at Arizona State University, said Hobbs' frequent appearances at community events have helped project a feeling of order in the state.

Like her predecessor, Ducey, Hobbs attended dozens of ribbon cuttings and business events in her first year, showcasing the state's booming economy and growth.

"I think in the political space there seems to be a lot of chaos nationally, and whether it's actually happening in Arizona, I don't feel that," he said. "Great leaders bring order to chaos, and I feel like there's order with Gov. Hobbs."

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Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Has Gov. Katie Hobbs mastered divided government? 2024 will be a test