Lake Mead is in better shape now, but how long will it last?
What a difference a year makes.
There was an elaborate rollout and plenty of screaming headlines last August when the feds announced Lake Mead had fallen into a deeper level of shortage.
The attention seemed odd, considering that the water cuts it triggered were not only expected but paltry when compared to the additional water savings needed to rescue what was then a lake on life support.
Fast forward one wet winter, and Lake Mead — the source of about 40% of Arizona’s water — is in much better shape.
Water levels are about 20 feet higher than last August — high enough to move us up a shortage tier and require fewer water cuts of Arizona in 2024. California, meanwhile, still won’t have to part with a drop.
Yet there was simply a quiet webinar on Aug. 15 to unveil our good fortune.
We haven't solved Lake Mead's problem
I get why.
No one wants to leave the impression that Lake Mead is in better shape. Because, really, it’s not.
One wet winter has not solved the fundamental problem, which is that we still use more water each year than the Colorado River produces.
That’s why, over the last two decades, water users in Arizona, California and Nevada (not to mention Mexico) have nearly drained the nation’s largest reservoir.
The latest deal among the states to voluntarily leave more water in Lake Mead won’t permanently solve this problem.
If we’re lucky, billions in federal cash will spur enough water conservation, over and above what the current rules require, to limp the lake through 2026.
Which is still important, because that’s when the current operating rules — including the tiered shortage system and its mandatory water cuts — expire.
The next three years would be far better spent negotiating a set of rules that can put Lake Mead on more solid footing, rather than moving from one emergency measure to the next, simply to keep water flowing downstream.
Did we buy enough time to look long term?
The question is whether Mother Nature will afford us that luxury.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation, which oversees operations at Lake Mead, withdrew its alternatives for how to handle the next three years once the states agreed to a deal (at least, in theory) in May.
It is now studying that deal to ensure it will hold up through 2026 and is expected to release its conclusions later this year.
But most observers believe that is simply a formality.
Reclamation will green-light the deal because it wants to focus on the long term as much as everyone else.
Can we pull it off? Arizona has ambitious goal to save water
Meanwhile, though, it’s gotten mighty hot and dry.
And unless there are a lot more agreements to save water that haven’t been announced, we’re short of the goal that is the backbone of the states’ deal.
Everyone hopes so, no one really knows
If the newly released August forecast is any indication, Lake Mead should remain safely out of the panic zone through the first half of 2025, which is as far out as these monthly forecasts go.
But does that mean we can cruise all the way through 2026 on what we’re doing now?
Particularly if stays hot and dry, the voluntary deals don’t materialize as quickly as we’d hoped, and the rules say we can use more water next year because Lake Mead is up, even if just temporarily?
Good question.
Everyone seems to hope so. But no one I talked to really knows.
If there’s anything to squawk about this August, that would be it.
Reach Allhands at joanna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com. On X, formerly Twitter: @joannaallhands.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Lake Mead may be in better shape, but how long will it last?
