When Arizonans can expect election results updates and why counting ballots takes time

Arizona voters got a first batch of election results about an hour after the polls closed Tuesday.

Results followed from Maricopa County until about 2 a.m. Wednesday. But it could take days to determine winners in tight races.

State law gives county election officials until Nov. 28 to wrap up counting for this Nov. 8 election.

The results released first included early ballots cast by mail or dropped off before Nov. 5.

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In a county where more than 85% of voters typically cast a ballot by mail, drop box or in person before Election Day, that represented a sizable chunk of the result.

Later results released Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning were from in-person voters on Election Day at the county's 223 vote centers.

As of Wednesday morning, about 1.8 million votes had been tallied statewide.

Officials estimate that about 250,000 people voted in person in Maricopa County on Election Day.

In Maricopa County, what remain to be counted are results from about 400,000 ballots. That number consists of provisional ballots, those unable to be read by tabulators at polling sites on Election Day and early ballots dropped off immediately before and on Election Day. The early ballots will need to be signature verified, separated from their signed affidavit envelope by a bipartisan team and then counted before they can be included in the results.

The county began processing those ballots on Wednesday, as well as ballots cast and dropped into secure boxes, or "door 3" in the tabulator, at polling sites affected by election machine issues.

Later, elections staff will process any ballots that require more investigation. For example, a person showing up to vote without the proper ID was allowed to cast a provisional ballot, but it isn't counted unless the voter returns within five days with identification.

Other counties also have ballots to count, although estimates on how many remain to be tallied in each county were not immediately available.

The Secretary of State's Office also tracks ballot reporting by county.

How long does it take to count ballots?

Maricopa County Election Director Scott Jarrett said his team will work through Veterans Day, which falls on the Friday after the election, to process ballots and get voters full results.

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"It takes time," Jarrett said. "So, we're estimating that we'll have between 98 and 99 percent of ballots reported by that Friday after Election Day — 72 hours."

The more last-minute early ballots received, the longer it takes to count votes and determine tight races. In the buildup to Tuesday, county officials urged voters to be patient.

"I promise you everybody on this team will be working their butts off every single day," Recorder Stephen Richer said.

When is the next Arizona election update?

Arizona counties were releasing election results throughout the day Wednesday. Maricopa County's next release of results is scheduled for Wednesday evening.

What can we learn from early ballots?

As of data received Sunday morning, the ballot return rate differed for Democrats and Republicans statewide.

Of Democrats who requested early ballots, 39% had already voted. Of Republicans who requested early ballots, 36% had voted so far. For independents and others, the rate of return was 24.5%.

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In recent election cycles, the first batch of results has tended to lean Democratic because Republicans have been more likely to drop off their ballots on Election Day or vote in person at the polls.

That trend was seen in the first round of results released by Arizona counties Tuesday night. In recent days, some Republican candidates and prominent figures within the party continued to sow doubt about early voting.

"They all count. They're all wonderful," Richer said of ballots. "We love them all. We just count them at different times."

When will major Arizona races be called?

The news cooperative Associated Press will report the vote and declare winners Tuesday, as it has in U.S. elections since 1848.

The AP may call a statewide or U.S. House race in which the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less, if it determines the lead is too large for a mandatory recount to change the outcome.

The AP does not call down-ballot races on election night if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 2% or if the leading candidate is within 2% of the 50% runoff threshold. AP will revisit those races later in the week to confirm there aren’t enough outstanding votes left to count that could change the outcome.

The Republic and azcentral.com, part of the USA Today Network, are not calling any races. Nor is USA Today or any other news site in the network. The Republic and USA Today will rely on AP or will cite two credible sources if they call before AP does.

The Republic and azcentral.com will report when candidates declare victory or concede, and when the mathematical possibility ends of a race flipping.

Possibility of recounts

A new Arizona law means that even once county officials have posted full results, the election may not be entirely over.

Senate Bill 1008, passed earlier this year, widened the margin to trigger an automatic recount between candidates or on ballot measures to 0.5% or less of the number of votes cast.

Previously, the margin was 0.1% of the number of votes cast. Jarrett said he reviewed the results of the 2020 election and found that if the new law was in place then, five contests would have required recounts, including the presidential race.

"It increased the likelihood that automatic recounts would happen, not only that this will happen on a single contest, but could be many contests on the same ballot," Jarrett said.

Any recounts triggered for the upcoming election will happen after county and state officials certify the results, according to state law.

Before a recount is performed, the county's tabulators again will be tested for accuracy by both county and state officials. Afterward, as in the initial count, election workers will hand count a statistically significant number of ballots in each contest impacted.

The entire process could take until Dec. 30, Jarrett said.

How can I track my ballot status?

Maricopa County voters can see whether their ballot has been signature verified and counted by texting "JOIN" to 628-683 or going to BeBallotReady.Vote.

Republic data reporter Kunle Falayi and Associated Press contributed to this article.

Sasha Hupka covers Maricopa County and regional issues for The Arizona Republic with a focus on voting and democracy. Do you have a tip about elections or questions about voting? Reach her at sasha.hupka@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter: @SashaHupka.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: When Arizonans can expect election results updates? Why patience is key