Is Arkansas a bad matchup for KU basketball in NCAA Tournament?

After beating Howard on Thursday, the No. 1-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will play No. 8 Arkansas on Saturday at Wells Fargo Arena.

The Jayhawks are 8-5 against Arkansas all-time, with the teams last meeting on Nov. 22, 2005. The Razorbacks won 65-64.

No. 8 Arkansas enters Saturday’s game following a 73-63 win over No. 9 Illinois in the first round. Arkansas is a tall, athletic team that hangs its hat on defense — while a transfer leads the offensive charge.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

Saturday’s game: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Arkansas

When/where: 4:15 p.m. CT, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

TV/Streaming: CBS

Opponent’s record: 21-13, 8-10 SEC

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 19

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Arkansas Team Strengths

• Elite defense: Arkansas ranks 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.2).

• Foul drawers: The Razorbacks are great at getting to the free throw line, ranking 25th in the nation in free-throw-rate (39%). The Razorbacks shot 29 free throws Thursday.

• Defend the arc well: Arkansas limits opponents to 30.4% shooting from beyond the arc, ranking 22nd in the nation.

• Old-school play: The Razorbacks excel at finding quality shots inside the arc. They rank 60th in the nation in two-point percentage (53.2).

• Elite rim protection: Arkansas limits opposing teams to 55% shooting at the rim. In comparison, KU limits teams to 57.8%. Not to mention, the Razorbacks are 18th in the nation in block percentage (13.4).

Arkansas Team Weaknesses

• Struggles with the long ball: The Razorbacks rank 305th in the nation in three-point percentage (31.6).

• Free-throw line issues: Although Arkansas draws fouls at a high rate, it fails to convert at the line. The Razorbacks rank 282nd in free throw percentage (69.2). None of their regulars shoot 80% or better at the line.

• No sharing, no caring: Arkansas ranks 236th in assist rate (48.7%).

• Lack of depth: Arkansas doesn’t go deep into the bench, much like KU. The Razorbacks rank 293rd in bench minutes percentage (25.9).

• Bailing opponents out: Arkansas plays excellent defense but struggles to do so without fouling, ranking 331st in foul rate (39.2). Illinois shot 26 free throws on Thursday.

Arkansas Name to Know

6-foot-6 junior guard Ricky Council IV (No.1)

+ Great at the rim (67.2% at the rim)

+ Quick hands (1.2 steals per game)

+ Solid rebounder for his size (3.4 rebounds per game)

- Turnover prone (2.4 turnovers per game over his last five games)

- Bad shooter from beyond the arc (27.2% from three)

- Has been slumping (30.8% shooting over his last five games)

Tale of the Tape

This athletic Arkansas team loves to run whenever it can. Here, Council got the rebound and quickly threw an outlet pass to Nick Smith Jr., who converted the layup before any Illinois defender could get back in time.

One thing about this Razorbacks team is it relies on taking the ball to the rim, especially on fast breaks. The Razorbacks shoot 70% at the rim, so KU needs to either get back to form a wall and prevent the score or foul them — sending a poor free-throw-shooting team to the line.

The Razorbacks can take the momentum of a game in seconds with their athleticism. (That was on display in round one in Des Moines.) Here, Kamani Johnson blocked the shot, and Anthony Black got the ball and raced up the court. He then found Smith with a lob pass for a dunk.

Arkansas can completely demoralize the opposing team with these high-flying, flashy displays of dominance, allowing the Razorbacks to take control of the game. That makes the fundamentals even more important for the Jayhawks.

What does that mean? KU must stay composed on offense and not rush shots or get into situations that can lead to Arkansas fast-break opportunities.

Related: Arkansas ranks No. 48 in the nation in tempo, per KenPom.

Game Prediction

KU’s last game was played at an up-and-down pace due to the matchup with Howard — particularly the Bison’s vulnerability defending in transition and the athletic mismatch. Let’s just say the Razorbacks aren’t quite that.

Kansas will have its work cut out against this tall, athletic Arkansas team that loves to score inside the arc. The undersized Jayhawks could face issues defending at the rim against Arkansas, which ranks 13th in average height per player.

If 6-foot-7 de facto big KJ Adams struggles early, KU could turn to Ernest Udeh to play extended minutes. The biggest worry about Udeh would be his tendency to get into foul trouble (7.2 fouls per 40 minutes).

Then there’s the matchup of Arkansas’ offense vs. KU’s defense. The Jayhawks need to force the Razorbacks to chuck up three-pointers, so that means walling off the paint and rotating to prevent drives to the rim. Arkansas is a relatively young team whose shot selection sometimes reflects it, so Kansas needs to play into that and goad the No. 8 seed into bad shots.

Offensively, the Jayhawks need to get the Razorbacks into foul trouble by seeking out driving lanes. That doesn’t mean taking wild shots and hoping they go in — but controlled drives into space that force the defense to react.

Arkansas could cause Kansas real problems, but the Razorbacks have clear flaws. As long as KU doesn’t let them get hot from three-point land and limits their paint points, I think Kansas wins a close one.

Kansas 73, Arkansas 68

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: KU (-4.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 17-7

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 13-11

KU Player to watch: Gradey Dick

In a game where Arkansas features two potential future NBA lottery picks, I am beyond intrigued by how Gradey Dick looks compared to them.

The freshman will enter Saturday’s game off his first college double-double (19 points and 11 rebounds) against Howard, so he’s likely feeling good. The Razorbacks do an excellent job of limiting opposing-team shooters, so it’ll be crucial for Dick to adapt. If he’s struggling with his shot, how else can he affect the game?

Dick needs to stay in front of his man and not get beat on cuts on the defensive end. There’s a strong chance the Razorbacks will try to attack him on defense, so it’s pivotal he holds his own there.

If Dick can put up double-digit points and play adequate defense, Kansas should win.