Arkansas basketball vs. Mississippi State: Scouting report, score prediction

FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas basketball is back home at Bud Walton Arena to face Mississippi State. The Razorbacks will try to extend their SEC winning streak to six games on Saturday (5 p.m. CT, ESPNU).

The Razorbacks (17-7, 6-5 SEC) are familiar with Mississippi State coach Chris Jans, who was at New Mexico State last season. The Aggies lost to Arkansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Jans was named Mississippi State's coach the next day.

The Bulldogs (16-8, 4-7) have won their last four games. They had a rough start to SEC play, losing all but one of their first eight conference games. Since pulling off an upset of No. 11 TCU in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge, however, Mississippi State hasn't lost again.

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Mississippi State's offense lives in the paint

Only five teams in the country have a worse 3-point percentage than Mississippi State. The Bulldogs make 27.9% of their shots beyond the arc.

Mississippi State relies on transition offense and points in the paint. If Arkansas is going to stop the Bulldogs, it will have to limit turnovers, defend well inside, and maybe make a few 3-pointers of its own.

The Bulldogs average the second-fewest points per game in the SEC (65.5) thanks to their lack of perimeter shooting, but their staunch defense makes it possible for them to win low-scoring, physical games.

Player to watch: Tolu Smith

Veteran forward Tolu Smith is the Bulldogs' leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 14.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He leads the SEC in field goal percentage (58.4%) and is third in rebounds.

"It’s a paint game," Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said Wednesday. "You’ve got to be able to defensively defend the paint, starting with Tolu Smith inside.... Smith is just a hard, hard cover because he's a wide body."

Defense is Bulldogs' strength

Mississippi State ranks No. 5 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. A large part of The Bulldogs' success is their ability to create turnovers: They rank No. 3 in steal percentage (14.5%).

That means trouble for an Arkansas team that has struggled with turnovers. The Razorbacks limited their giveaways to 11 in each of their last two games, but they're averaging almost 14 per game in SEC play.

"It's hard to come up with a game plan for a team that's a high-steal, high-gamble team," Musselman said. "So, getting a shot on goal becomes paramount. Trying to eliminate live-ball turnovers is extremely important as well."

Score prediction

Arkansas 70, Mississippi State 65: Arkansas' post players, particularly Makhi and Makhel Mitchell, will keep up their strong defense to limit the Bulldogs' strength. The offense will give up more turnovers than the Razorbacks might like, but Arkansas will limit the damage on the other end of the floor and continue its upward trend.

Christina Long covers the Arkansas Razorbacks for the Southwest Times Record and USA Today Network. You can follow her on Twitter @christinalong00 or email her at clong@swtimes.com.

This article originally appeared on Fort Smith Times Record: Arkansas basketball vs. Mississippi State: Scouting report, score prediction