Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, predictions and PGA Tour picks
A PGA Tour field of 123 golfers is at Bay Hill Club & Lodge this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Collin Morikawa isn’t in attendance following his victory at last week’s WGC-Workday Championship. Below, we look at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Tyrrell Hatton (+1800) returns to Bay Hill to defend his 2020 API title. It was his first career PGA Tour victory, but he has two wins on the European Tour since the beginning of last year, as well. Viktor Hovland is the top player in the field by the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings.
The field is strong for the marquee event but has several notable omissions, including Dustin Johnson. It’s a busy stretch of the PGA Tour schedule in the run-up to the 2021 Masters Tournament. The Players Championship takes place next week at TPC Sawgrass.
2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Favorite
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:27 a.m. ET.
Francesco Molinari (+2800)
Molinari returns to the site of his most recent PGA Tour victory, having won this event in 2019. He didn’t defend his title last year, as he withdrew due to a back injury and played just seven events in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
He has been much more active early in 2021 and has three top-10 finishes in four events, including a T-8 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. He’s averaging 0.55 Strokes Gained: Approach and 0.51 SG: Around-the-Green per round on the 2020-21 season.
The former Open Championship winner has 28 career rounds played at Bay Hill and ranks fourth in this field with an average of 2.23 strokes gained on the field per round.
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2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Contender
Alex Noren (+8000)
Noren missed the cut in this event last year despite gaining 2.13 strokes around the green over the first two rounds, as he lost 2.30 strokes per round off the tee. His driver continues to be a problem this season, but he has been strong on and around the putting surfaces.
Once ranked as high as eighth in the Official World Golf Ranking, Noren enters this week at No. 95 following a quality T-12 finish in a comparable field at the Genesis Invitational.
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2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Long shot
Henrik Stenson (+10000)
Stenson’s 44 career rounds played at this venue are the eighth-most in this field. His average of 2.00 strokes gained on the field per round are tops in that group and sixth among those with a minimum of 10 career rounds played here.
He missed the cut in two of his last four appearances at the API, but he has five top-10 finishes since 2013, including a fourth-place result in 2018. He’ll make his 2021 PGA Tour debut following back-to-back missed cuts at the European Tour’s Saudi International and Omega Dubai Desert Classic.
His form doesn’t inspire confidence but the familiar venue should get him back on track as he begins to gear up for the Masters.
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