Asheville fall foliage forecast: Cooling temps signal 'perfect conditions:' When is peak?

ASHEVILLE - Western North Carolina fall foliage forecasters were encouraged by the weekend's cooling temperatures, which signaled a strong start to the leaf peeping season, which one expert called "perfect conditions" to spur prime color development.

With the onset of autumnal chill, Howard Neufeld, professor of plant eco-physiology at Appalachian State University in Boone, said fall foliage will likely appear almost exactly on time. There's isolated peak color now in the area's highest elevations, those above 5,000 feet, but WNC's true peak will come in the next two weeks, between Oct. 13-20 for the 3,000-to 4,500-foot elevation range, Neufeld estimates.

This encompasses the Blue Ridge Parkway, which hugs the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains for 469 miles from Virginia to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Cherokee, ranked a No. 1 destination in a recent report of the best roads for leaf peeping.

“It’s good it cooled down this week, because I was getting worried," Neufeld told the Citizen Times Oct. 9. “It’s kind of rescued the season for us." Even just a few days of low temperatures signal to the trees that it is time to turn.

Beverly Collins, a retired biology professor, still the go-to fall foliage forecaster for Western Carolina University in Cullowhee, called it the traditional "cold snap" for the second weekend in October. If followed by sunny days and cool nights, it could mean "perfect fall weather for visitors and color."

At the heels of high-70s temps the week before, the weekend's lows were a bit of a whiplash, but dawned almost perfectly on time — leaves crunching underfoot on sidewalks, front yards haunted by beleaguered plastic witches, inflatable jack-o'-lanterns and the grimaces of countless skeletons. On porch steps, potted mums were in bloom.

The morning of Oct. 9 saw a low in Asheville of 34 degrees, and signaled the area's first frost of the season, said Clay Chaney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Greer, South Carolina. Temperatures are expected to warm throughout the week, with lows in the 40s and highs in the low 70s, but there's a possibility of rain later in the week, ushering in another cold front.

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Beyond this week, Chaney said, he predicted cooler temperatures will stick around.

The six-to 10-day outlook from NWS's Climate Prediction Center forecasts below normal temperatures for Oct. 15-19.

Leaf season is 'primed and ready to go'

Evan Fisher was similarly cheered by the cooling temperatures, and said "blue-sky days" paired with cratering temperatures at night signal "spot on" conditions for the area.

Fisher is a UNC Asheville grad and atmospheric sciences major. In September, he launched ExploreFall.com, where people can find maps and forecasts that update daily. In the month since the site went live, Fisher said the fall foliage map has already received 100,000 views.

“I think this is perfectly situated in early October. This will really help to kick things into high gear," he said of the weekend's temperatures. "September kind of laid the groundwork, and it always does for fall foliage in October, but you do need a kicker, like we saw this weekend, to really get the ball rolling.”

As green fades to yellow, pockets of peak color appearing at the crests of some of WNC's iconic ridgelines, Fisher said foliage looks "primed and ready to go," about to change "quite rapidly" and relatively on time.

He's anticipating the weekend of Oct. 20 to be the best color on the parkway, with colors peaking around Oct. 25 and beyond in the city of Asheville, around the Biltmore Estate and in Hendersonville.

Neufeld, Collins and Fisher all said they are anticipating a good year, though it's hard to know if vibrancy will match 2022, which brought some of the best color forecasters had seen in a decade.

“With climate change, we expect those seasons to be way more variable. Some good years and a lot of bad years. And so we’ve gotten lucky a couple years in a row here," Collins said.

The next two weeks will be among the busiest for Asheville's most popular sites, like Grandfather Mountain, Craggy Gardens and Mount Mitchell, and he advised leaf-goers to visit early in the morning and try to catch views during the week, rather than packed weekends.

Will dry conditions impact fall color?

Though the outlook was good, forecasters warned of a few possible causes for concern. Neufeld cautioned against strong winds or rain, which could knock off leaves more easily once they begin to turn.

Also, as Chaney confirmed, below normal rainfall means dry conditions for the region, with Asheville 3.23 inches below normal since Sept. 1, and 8.75 inches below normal, which would be 39.29 inches by this time of year.

Collins said dry conditions could mean trees in droughty sites or particularly susceptible to drought might turn and drop early, but also noted that some stress is good at bringing out more vibrant color. Under current conditions, she said she doesn't yet anticipate a significant impact from dry weather.

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Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on Twitter at @slhonosky. Please support local, daily journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Foliage forecast: Cooling temps in Asheville 'perfect' for fall color