Louisville basketball can't catch a break. Could the Cards even beat another winless team?

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Picture this: It’s Wednesday night in scenic Laramie, Wyoming.

In front of a presumably small crowd in the geographic midway-ish point between the campuses, it’s warmup time for the men’s basketball teams from Louisville and Cal-Berkeley.

On tap: A game no one asked for but that the morbidly curious are tracking with rapt attention.

It’s the Cardinals (0-8) vs. the Golden Bears (0-9) in a battle for whatever the opposite of college hoops supremacy is.

And sadly, it’s a figment of our imagination.

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Here in the real world, Cal hosts Eastern Washington (3-5) Wednesday in a game that analytics site KenPom.com gives the Bears a 64% chance of winning.

Louisville forward Jae'Lyn Withers (24) attempts to get past Miami forward A.J. Casey (0) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Louisville, Ky., Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022. Miami won 80-53. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
Louisville forward Jae'Lyn Withers (24) attempts to get past Miami forward A.J. Casey (0) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Louisville, Ky., Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022. Miami won 80-53. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

If they do, Louisville will enter its game Saturday at Florida State as the lone power-conference team without a win so far this season.

What a cop-out.

Shouldn’t the Cards and Bears get the chance to prove on the court which wants that win worst?

We can’t make the game happen. But we can dream.

Ken Pomeroy, the man behind KenPom.com, said in an email that his rating system picks the Cards 60-59. But he cautions his system is overrating U of L, joking that maybe "my computer refuses to believe a program of Louisville's stature is this bad."

His guess: Las Vegas might favor Cal by "three or four points."

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And while Pomeroy can't know for sure what would happen, we can — and did — seek help from some college basketball experts and a few folks with ties to the Cards and Bears to imagine how it might go.

Here, in the spirit of lending some levity to all these losses, is what they told us:

Brian Bennett, The Athletic: California 42, Louisville 39. It’s a titanic struggle for either team to put the ball in the basket — Cal ranks 338th nationally in effective field goal percentage, while Louisville is 346th. So this would be an offensive horror show. But at least the Golden Bears have stayed sort of close to some power-conference teams, hanging within 11 points of Kansas State, Clemson and TCU. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have lost to their five power-conference opponents by an average of more than 25 points. Both teams are ludicrously bad; Louisville might actually be historically awful. I would gladly hate-watch this game.

Jeff Borzello, ESPN: California 62, Louisville 58. We can’t exactly use wins comparison to figure out which team is better, but it’s worth looking at the margin of losses. The Cardinals have been absolutely steamrolled by every major-conference opponent, losing those five games by 25.8 points. Cal, on the other hand, looked remotely competitive for long stretches against its best opponents. To continue this very legitimate analysis, the hypothetical difference maker is going to be one-time Louisville target Devin Askew, who is finally putting up big numbers after a couple of years at Kentucky and Texas.

David Cobb, CBS Sports: California 59, Louisville 57. The Askew vs. El Ellis matchup would be a sight to behold. As the only productive guards on either team, it’s easy to see this game devolving into a one-on-one battle between them. Askew has proven a bit better at getting buckets against power-conference opponents as of late. He’s averaged 22 per game over Cal’s last three losses against Clemson, USC and Arizona. Ellis is coming off a 1-for-10 showing against Miami and may, understandably, be fatiguing of the hero-ball role the Cardinals have asked him to play. Give me Cal in a thriller witnessed by dozens.

Rob Dauster, The Field of 68: California 64, Louisville 61. In a game that is played in front of nothing but family, friends and the Sickos Committee, Cal finds a way to pull away down the stretch thanks to the fact that they have more than a single guard on their roster. As a way to try and attract more fans to the arena, officials allow the media to play a 5-on-5 pick-up game at halftime, which ends up being a more aesthetically pleasing product.

Jeff Duncan, The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune (U of L grad): California 50, Louisville 49. In the opening round of the Not-So-Great Alaska Shootout (which is where this game belongs); in a game of once-proud-now-winless programs, I’ll go with the lesser of two evils and take the Bears, who have been at least somewhat competitive against top competition. The Cards’ lack of confidence and direction has been mind-boggling so far. It’s hard to believe Jaylen Brown and Donovan Mitchell played at these two programs just a few years ago. How quickly — and precipitously — the mighty have fallen.

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Jeff Goodman, Stadium: California 60, Louisville 58. Mark Fox has been without arguably his best two players in Jalen Celestine and DeJuan Clayton. I’m not sure those guys play in this game, but Fox is a veteran head coach and he has a couple of point guards in Devin Askew and Joel Brown. They aren’t great, but that’s the difference for me. A veteran coach and multiple ballhandlers.

Jason Jones, The Athletic (Cal grad): California 50, Louisville 48. I don't have much faith in this prediction, but I'm being a homer. I don't want to believe my Golden Bears are the worst team in the country.

Gary Parrish, CBS Sports: California 67, Louisville 63. According to KenPom, Louisville would be considered a slight favorite over Cal on a neutral court. But I’d probably lean toward Cal, which is an absolutely incredible statement that speaks to just how much of a nightmare this thing at Louisville has become.

FILE - California head coach Mark Fox gestures during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona, on March 5, 2022, in Tucson, Ariz. Between stepping into a rebuilding into a rebuilding job and dealing with COVID, Mark Fox's coaching tenure at California hasn't gotten off to the smoothest start. The Golden Bears have had three straight losing seasons under Fox and five straight overall for their longest stretch of futility in more than four decades. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri, File)

Matt Norlander, CBS Sports: Louisville 66, California 64. I could see anything from Louisville by 18 to Cal by 12. Both teams are terrible but their variance in a game like this is fascinating. Louisville is trying to figure out its purpose under a new coach, while Cal is playing out the string for however long Mark Fox lasts in his fourth and final year running that program. I would take Louisville because it narrowly rates higher in predictive metrics. And because, on balance, Louisville's played a more difficult slate of opponents in the first month of the season. Fascinating thought experiment. The college hoops sicko in me badly wants to watch this.

Jim Root, Three-Man Weave: Louisville 60, Cal 58 (OT). Holding a deep-seated grudge against Big Blue Nation from his time at Kentucky, Askew exacts some revenge by scoring on his own basket at the buzzer. The former Wildcat guard may never defeat Kentucky, but he allows its archrival to feel a small shred of joy amid a deep, dark void of despair. One lingering question: which side says no to a coach swap? The few Cal fans in the world might be sick enough of Fox to gamble on Kenny Payne’s recruiting connections. Meanwhile, the sad state of Cards basketball has me convinced they’d accept a guy who once won 20 games in the SEC for three straight years. Fun fact: the sum of the final KenPom ranking for Fox’s last three Georgia teams (197) is still better than Louisville’s current ranking (206). Of course, it’s also better than Cal’s (227).

Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle: Louisville 17, California 16. Cal has been better against power conference opponents (no losses by more than 15 in five tries), Louisville has been better against mid/low major opponents (all losses by one point), and both only do one thing sort of well (free-throw percentage). Truly an unstoppable force vs. immovable object situation. Give me the Cards by one in a game with no fewer than 73 combined turnovers.

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Kevin Sweeney, Sports Illustrated: Louisville 61, California 59. It’s hard to envision either team producing anything resembling an efficient offense, but Louisville’s size and athleticism would be disruptive against an undermanned Cal team. The Golden Bears don’t have the firepower to deliver the knockout punches that have plagued the Cardinals this season, so Louisville finds a way.

Isaac Trotter, 247Sports: California 59, Louisville 56. Cal has two things on its side: a real point guard and real effort. It’s been a struggle all season long, but the effort has never been in question. That has, uhh, not been the case for Louisville. The Cardinals have more overall talent, but Cal has old, prideful veterans who will play with some spirit on a nightly basis. But cracking 60 would be a real struggle.

Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: California 62, Louisville 58. I think Cal wins a tight, very ugly game. I’ve never seen a team that is more careless with its execution offensively at the high major level than Louisville is this year. They turn the ball over like crazy. They take horrible shots. There isn’t enough ball movement. I just think they’re extremely easy to defend, especially in the halfcourt. But I absolutely would not watch this game, and I would recommend nobody else in this hypothetical multiverse does either.

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brett Dawson at mdawson@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @BDawsonWrites.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Could Louisville basketball team beat winless Cal? What experts say