An assassination in Beirut and a bombing in Iran push fear of war across Middle East to new heights

The assassination in Lebanon of one of the highest-ranking officials in Hamas followed by devastating bombings in Iran 24 hours later, killing 103 people during memorial ceremonies for Iran’s most powerful military chief, have heightened fears of bloody conflict spreading across the Middle East.

Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of the Hamas politburo and one of the founders of the group’s military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, is the most high-profile adversary to be killed by Israel since the start of the latest Gaza war.

The massacre in Iran, with reports of up to four explosions in a synchronised attack using remote-controlled bombs, took place at the birthplace of Commander Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who died in a targeted drone attack by the US – under the Trump administration – four years ago.

The Iranian government called the attack in the city of Kerman, in which dozens were also injured “an act of terrorism” without immediately apportioning blame. However, officials were quick to point out that it took place the day after an Iranian opposition figure had appeared at Israel’s parliament urging the targeting of Iran.

Vahid Beheshti, who had been on hunger strike in London in a campaign to pressure the British government to designate the IRGC as a national security threat, told the Knesset that direct military action was the only answer.

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He said: “Do not be afraid to attack the heads of the Iranian leadership in Iran – this is the only language they understand. Help us overthrow the government. Try to imagine what the Middle East would look like without the Iranian government.”

Beheshti, who is based in the UK, had camped outside the Foreign Office in London in pursuit of his demand that the government proscribe the IRGC as a threat to the UK. He claims that the group has been responsible for ten death threats in the past seven months in the UK. The British-Iranian dual national ended his hunger strike after five months.

Israel has been suspected of carrying out killings of scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear programme. Last week Tehran said a senior commander of the IRGC, Seyyed Razi Mousavi, was killed during Israeli air strikes in Syria at Sayyida Zeinab, south-east of Damascus. The IRGC declared that the death of Mousavi, who had been an aide to General Suleimani, “would be avenged ... Israel will pay for this crime”.

Previous bombings causing large-scale casualties in predominantly Shia Iran have been claimed by Arab separatist, and extremist Sunni groups, including Isis. Tehran has, at times, claimed Western and Israeli collusion, without providing evidence.

The killing of Aurori, in a drone strike in Beirut, led to threats of retribution from Hamas and the Lebanese Shia militia, Hezbollah, as well as from Iran, the ally and sponsor of the two groups and others across the region. The Iranian warning had come before the Suleimani memorial explosions.

Arouri was the chief Hamas emissary to Hezbollah and travelled to Tehran a number of times to strengthen ties with the Iranian government. Washington regarded him as a key player in the militant axis against the US and Israel, and had offered a $5m (£4m) reward for information about his whereabouts.

In reality, however, Arouri’s presence in the Lebanese capital for the last five years was long known to Western and Israeli intelligence services : it would not have been difficult to track him down. He was not assassinated in a hidden underground bunker, but at Hamas offices in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh where he was attending a meeting. Five others present also died in the attack.

Israel had accused Arouri of serious acts of violence and plotting upheaval in the past. Nine years ago he allegedly organised the kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank. The same year he was blamed for planning a coup to overthrow Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority. More recently he was said to have been responsible for an operation last spring in which a salvo of missiles fired from southern Lebanon into Israel.

Arouri had already, by then, spent more than a dozen years in Israeli prison. He had gone into exile in Turkey after being released in 2010 before moving to Lebanon.

In October, after the Hamas raid into Israel which killed more than 1,200 people and took around 240 people hostage, Arouri held talks with the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Ziad Nakhale, the secretary general of Islamic Jihad, another jihadist group based in Gaza to plan “resistance”.

The meeting was hardly secret. It was highlighted by Al-Manar, Hezbollah’s official broadcaster, which explained that discussions had taken place for consultation “in order to achieve an all-out victory and to stop the brutal attack on the oppressed people of Gaza and the West Bank.”

So why did the Israelis choose to wait until now to eliminate Arouri, and what effect will this have on the war and geopolitics?

One cannot downplay what has happened. By carrying out the extrajudicial killing in a foreign state of such a major figure, Israel has taken the calculated step of crossing a red line. It is ready, it says, for the consequences.

The Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned the “new Israeli crime intended to spur a new phase of conflict, following daily attacks in the south of Lebanon”. His country will present a complaint to the UN security council over the “blatant strike” on its territory

Hezbollah said the assassination was a “serious assault on Lebanon” and a “dangerous development in the course of war between enemy and axis of resistance … that will not go without a response or punishment. The resistance has its finger on the trigger.” Nasrallah, in a speech in Beirut, said that the killing of Aurori was a “major crime” and that people who died in the Iran attacks were “martyrs who died on the same road, cause and battle that was led by” Suleimani. He added that if Israel wages war on Lebanon there will be “no ceiling” and “no rules” to Hezbollah’s fighting.

One immediate effect of Arouri’s removal will be on hostage negotiations. He had been one of the main figures in the negotiation to release the batches of those held in Gaza in return for prisoner exchanges, limited periods of ceasefire and aid getting into the territory.

It was this role in the hostage crisis which, according to some Israeli and Western officials, which had made the Israeli intelligence services and the military decide that, for the time being, Arouri was more useful alive than dead.

Hamas announced in the aftermath of the assassination that there will be no more hostage talks. Egypt, one of the main conduits for the negotiations, said it was suspending mediation. An ongoing visit by an Israeli team to Cairo for fresh talks on the issue was cut short.

The Israeli government, and in particular prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been attacked by families of the hostages for its failure in freeing all the hostages, with some dying in the fighting and more than a hundred still held captive.

The latest setback on talks is likely to add to that fierce criticism, and fuel charges from opponents that Netanyahu, facing public inquiries into the massive intelligence and security failures which allowed the Hamas massacre to take place, as well facing separate criminal charges, wants to prolong the conflict out of self-interest.

It is also the case, however, that the Netanyahu government is in need of symbolic victories. The ground offensive in Gaza is grinding on after three months. The Israeli military say that around 8,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, with the group’s total strength estimated to be around 30,000. At the same time, the huge toll of Palestinian civilian deaths, more than 22,000 according to Palestinian health authorities, has led to rising international condemnation of Israel’s conduct.

Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader most identified by the Israeli government and media as the orchestrator of the Hamas atrocities, remains free and alive in Gaza, as does Mohammed Deif, the other senior commander cited for organising the attacks.

The elimination of Saleh al-Arouri was a display of Israel’s lethal ability to strike its enemies. Others have been similarly targeted successfully in the past.

But this killing, followed by the bombings in Iran, adds greatly to the sense of foreboding about what lies ahead, with no sign of an end to the bloody strife.