AST Weather Blog: Severe risk very low, but not zero Friday night and Saturday
Two rounds of storms are expected to affect Arkansas as we head into the weekend. The first is Friday night. The second round is during the day Saturday, particularly for the afternoon hours south and east of Little Rock.
A few storms could be strong to severe Friday night. Heavier rain will move over west and northwest Arkansas earlier in the night, with storms more likely for central Arkansas around midnight. Damaging wind and isolated large hail are the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, but this threat is low.
As we approach sunrise on Saturday, those overnight storms gradually move out of Arkansas into Mississippi and Tennessee. Through the morning hours, we’ll be cloudy, mild and windy.
Our cold front will continue to advance east through central Arkansas as we approach midday. Once the front passes, our severe risk will come to an end. For some of you, this may happen before storms ever have a chance to develop.
The front should be passing through Central Arkansas and the Little Rock by or before noon. The state 3A high school football playoff game kicks off at noon, which is the model screenshot shown above. Most lightning looks to stay south and east of Little Rock, but the noon game is the one that has the only chance of weather delays.
The evening game at 6:30pm should be just fine, but it will be windy and cool. Rain will be exiting the state entirely around sunset.
The greatest threat for severe storms Saturday is over southeast Arkansas, where there will be warmer temperatures and more fuel for storms.
A few isolated storms will develop in eastern Arkansas early in the afternoon. These will quickly intensify, perhaps becoming severe as they approach the Mississippi River. More of these will likely develop in southeast Arkansas during the afternoon. These will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and a tornado. But they may not reach that peak intensity until after they cross into Mississippi and Tennessee.
Once they cross the state line, we will gradually clear out and temperatures fall through the evening. At that point, the severe risk will be behind us.
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To make sure you are staying up-to-date with the forecast, download the Arkansas Storm Team app to get updates anywhere at any time.
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