AST Weather Blog: Strong to severe storms likely this weekend
A strong storm system is expected to impact much of the Natural State this upcoming weekend, likely moving in early Saturday morning and moving out by Sunday morning.
Though this storm is already several days away, it has already generated a lot of buzz in terms of winter weather. Both GFS and Euro were hinting at some snow accumulations on the backside of the system Saturday night. But latest guidance suggests any winter impacts will be very minimal. That said, the focus of this weather system should be the severe side.
During the overnight hours Friday into Saturday, showers and storms will gradually increase. Wind will also ramp up from the south, importing more warm, humid air into the region.
The earliest showers and storms should be mostly non-severe, though they may produce some small hail at times along with gusty wind. These should become a bit more widespread through midday as a cold front moves in, pressing the severe risk a bit farther east into the Delta for the afternoon.
The highest instability will likely be found across south Arkansas, and perhaps parts of eastern Arkansas early Saturday afternoon. This could result in stronger storms that are more capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and perhaps even tornadoes.
The current thinking, however, is that this cold front should move relatively fast. If that’s the case, the severe risk may be cut short and perhaps we end up getting rid of the rain sooner than later. But if the front moves through slowly, it would likely prolong the risk into the afternoon across eastern Arkansas.
Regardless, the severe risk should be over by Saturday night. At that point, colder air will be spreading across the Natural State. Any moisture that wraps back around the system into northern Arkansas could briefly change over to a few light snow flurries or showers. But due to the fast-moving nature of this system, this should be minimal. As of now, both the European and American forecast models have scaled back on this potential.
Stay with the Arkansas Storm Team for updates in the coming days.
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