Atlantic off Jersey Shore is warmer than usual. That could mean big storms coming
Warming waters could lead to stronger storms hitting the mid-Atlantic region as tropical systems coming from the south could sustain their strength over warmer-than-normal offshore waters, climate experts say.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, for example, on July 20 the surface temperature off Sandy Hook reached 79.3 degrees Fahrenheit, which was more than 3 degrees above the long-term average temperatures for July and August, 76.2 degrees. This is following temperatures hitting over 75 degrees in June, over five degrees warmer than June's monthly average of 69.8 degrees.
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Glen Gawarkiewicz, a senior scientist in physical oceanography at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said storms are "a really big thing" he is worried about.
"If we get a warmer ocean that provides more fuel for storms. We have a very unusual situation right now as the El Niño is starting in the Pacific that the trade winds have really weakened in the eastern Atlantic, and that is very unusual there. Normally they get a little bit stronger," Gawarkiewicz said. "Normally in an El Niño year you expect fewer hurricanes but it looks like we may have a normal number or slightly above normal."
'The persistence of the warmth'
Record-breaking temperatures are hitting multiple cities around the United States. Phoenix recorded an unprecedented nineteen consecutive days over 110 degrees. Death Valley reached 128 on Sunday. Records are falling in multiple locations. While temperatures in New Jersey have been relatively normal this summer, the state is not immune from rising temperatures, long term.
"(New Jersey) has been breaking and approaching record-high monthly temperatures and seasonal temperatures as opposed to just a single torrid day," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. "They still do exist, but it is the persistence of the warmth, and that is tied with warmer ocean temperatures because ocean waters don't cool or warm nearly as quickly as the atmospheric temperatures."
Extreme temperatures being recorded this summer are the result of the combination of natural variations within the climate system and human-caused climate change, as well as El Niño, according to weather and climate experts.
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"So, we've got the thermal input into the atmosphere in New Jersey. We have more moisture being put into the atmosphere in the New Jersey, and then what about warmer waters off-shore and storms?" Robinson said. "The basic premise, the fuel of tropical storms is warm ocean temperatures."
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He added that is why hurricanes and tropical storms do not start along New Jersey's latitude.
"They need bathtub water, water or 80 degrees or warmer over a large area. But as they move into cooler waters, the warmer that cooler water is, the longer that storm will be sustained. If we are warming the mid-Atlantic coastal waters it can be correlated with stronger storms as they make it here," Robinson said.
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That is what happened during Hurricane Sandy over a decade ago, he said.
"Sea surface temperatures were above normal for late October, and with that the storm did not diminish in strength as quickly as forecasts projected. There were actually studies done after Sandy which ran the conditions with normal ocean temperatures and the actual ocean temperatures in October 2012 and Sandy took the same track, but it was a weaker storm with average temperatures," Robinson said.
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He admitted that predicting the number of hurricanes is an inexact science and "also the number that make landfall is a hard thing to predict."
"But the eastern Atlantic is very, very warm," Gawarkiewicz said.
The USA TODAY Network is investigating the effects of a rapidly heating planet on people who live in our city and in the Northeast. Follow along with "City on Fire" as we report the struggle with summer temperatures. This is part of the project called Perilous Course. Contact journalist Charles Daye to be included in a story if you have been affected by heat: expense of air conditioning or lack of it, health risks, less access to green space, concern about pets and animals in the summer conditions, worry about an older loved one, etc.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Atlantic off Jersey Shore is warmer than usual, could bring big storms
