Following an eruption of activity last week, forecasters are watching the Atlantic for fresh development
Despite a few tropical systems roaming about the Atlantic during the Labor Day weekend, none pose an immediate threat to the United States. However, AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping an eye on a new system emerging from the coast of Africa that may ramp up to a hurricane and eye the Caribbean Islands and the United States before mid-September.
"We call this a period of 'active rest' in the Atlantic, where there are multiple tropical features, but none are a threat to the U.S. in the short term," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
On Monday, a lone named system remained across the open waters of the Atlantic: Tropical Depression Katia. Franklin and José dissipated across the Atlantic late Friday, Idalia dissipated late Saturday, and Gert followed on Monday morning.
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Katia is not likely to affect land as a northerly trajectory is likely over the west-central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
There may be a long-term threat brewing for the Caribbean and perhaps the U.S. later this week.
A tropical disturbance, known as a tropical wave, was beginning to move off the coast of Africa late in the week. It is expected to take many days to cross the Atlantic.
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Meteorologists refer to systems that form in this region of the basin as Cabo Verde systems, named for a group of islands just off the coast of Africa. The Cabo Verde season, as it is known by forecasters, forms the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season.
"Into early week, there may be some inhibiting factors for development with this latest tropical wave," AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
Looking ahead, perhaps as early as later this week or during the second week of September, conditions may become favorable for development as the tropical wave moves along.
"While the eastern Atlantic can be very tricky predicting storm formation this far out, all of the ingredients are available for development this time of the year," Rayno said. "Low wind shear, sufficient moisture and water temperatures are at their peak."
Wind shear, when strong, can be a tropical system's worst enemy and can inhibit or limit tropical development.
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Rayno, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg and many other experts at AccuWeather believe this system could go on to become a tropical storm and even a hurricane. If so, Lee is the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
"If that storm [the Lee candidate] ends up traveling north of the Lesser Antilles, then a U.S. strike late next week is unlikely," Rayno said. "However, if the storm makes it into the Caribbean Sea or moves westward along the northern islands of the Caribbean, then the risk of direct impact or perhaps a landfall in the U.S. around Sept. 14-15 would be much greater."
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the many named systems spinning in addition to emerging threats in the Atlantic, which has already generated 10 named storms and one unnamed subtropical storm this season. The historical average for an entire season is 14 named tropical storms.
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