Atlantic system may become tropical storm; system in Caribbean has low odds

With just days to go before the official close of hurricane season, forecasters are monitoring two areas for potential development: a tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean and a nontropical system located southeast of Bermuda. The latter has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical storm, forecasters said Tuesday.

The tropical disturbance, located north of Colombia and south of Haiti, is encountering dry air, which hinders storm development. As of 1 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center had given it only a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days.

Forecasters said the system would begin to drift slowly west, toward Nicaragua, in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the nontropical low pressure system southeast of Bermuda has the potential to become a subtropical or tropical storm later this week. If a tropical storm were to form it would be named Vince.

The system is forecast to develop along a front in the central Atlantic on Tuesday, then travel southeast, where it would encounter warmer water, which is conducive to tropical development.

As of 1 p.m. Tuesday, its odds had increased slightly to a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days, and 20% in the next two days. It is projected to to turn northeast by the weekend.

Nontropical systems, such as the Atlantic low, and the storm that dumped up to 12 inches of rain on areas of South Florida last week, gain their energy from cold and warm air interacting, while tropical systems gain their energy from warm ocean waters.

There have been 19 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season this year, seven of which were hurricanes. Three of them were major hurricanes, meaning at least a Category 3.

The two remaining names for storms from the year’s initial 21-name list are Vince and Whitney.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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