Atmospheric river may soak Rogue Valley again
Dec. 28—Another round of winds and heavy rains are in the Rogue Valley forecast into the weekend, but all could be quiet New Year's Day.
Roughly an inch and a half of precipitation is expected to fall in the Medford area between late Wednesday night and Saturday as a potent atmospheric river — a stream of dense, moist air originating from the tropics — brings warm, wet weather to the Rogue Valley in the latter half of the week before continuing to bring wet weather across the country and even into the Deep South, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Charles Smith.
High winds were expected in some parts of the county starting Wednesday night. The National Weather Service in Medford issued a wind advisory for southern and southeast portions of Jackson County — including Ashland, Talent and Phoenix — from 10 p.m. Wednesday through 7 p.m. Thursday.
"It's definitely not anything like the last windstorm, but Ashland should still be pretty breezy," Smith said.
The wind advisory anticipates speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. The weather service advises people to tie down any unsecured objects, and it warns drivers of high-profile vehicles to prepare for difficulties driving on Interstate 5 and at higher elevations.
The atmospheric river will more directly impact portions of northern and central California, which could see longer periods of excessive precipitation compared with the roughly 48 hours the storm will last in Southern Oregon.
"They're seeing more of the brunt of it," Smith said.
Because atmospheric rivers often originate in tropical areas with warmer climates, the storm system is expected to bring warmer temperatures to the Rogue Valley through the weekend. Snow was expected to fall as low as 3,500 feet early in the storm starting late Wednesday night, but the snow level gradually will rise to between 5,000 and 6,000 feet.
"It'll be essentially all rain for us," Smith said.
Precipitation in the Medford area was slated to start falling after 10 p.m. Wednesday and continue through at least Friday night, according to the forecast, with temperatures in the 40s.
The valley's forecast calls for a 70% chance of rain New Year's Eve, but clearer skies are in the forecast Sunday. The New Year's Day forecast calls for partly sunny skies and a high of 46 degrees.
"It's always a good thing to have a break," Smith said.
The break isn't expected to last long, according to Smith, with more "active weather patterns" on the horizon. Smith described the active weather as good for the region, which despite recent heavy rains is still recovering from an extended drought.
During the Christmas weekend storm, Medford recorded an extra 1.8 inches for the water year — growing from 2.98 inches as of Dec. 22 to 4.78 inches as of early Wednesday, a level that was still 31% below the normal precipitation level of 6.95 inches for the date, according to National Weather Service data.
Southern Oregon reservoirs are still at very low levels. Lost Creek Lake is 34% full, and Applegate Lake is 14% full, according to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data recorded Wednesday.
Fish Lake is 37% full, Agate Lake is 16% full, Fourmile Lake is 15% full, Howard Prairie Lake is 9% full, Emigrant lake is 6% full and Hyatt Lake is 5% full, according to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation data recorded Tuesday.
Reach web editor at 541-776-4471 or nmorgan@rosebudmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MTwebeditor.
