Auburn basketball vs. Arkansas: Our scouting report, score prediction

AUBURN — After starting the season on an eight-game win streak, Auburn basketball has split its last six contests, including a loss at Georgia on Wednesday.

The Tigers get to return home to Neville Arena for their next game against No. 13 Arkansas (12-2, 1-1 SEC) on Saturday (7:30 p.m., SEC Network), but the Razorbacks are coming off a big win over No. 21 Missouri the same night Auburn (11-3, 1-1) fell to the Bulldogs.

Junior guard Ricky Council IV guided Arkansas past Missouri with 25 points, and freshman Joseph Pinion poured in 13 off the bench. It was the Razorbacks' eighth win in their last 10 games, with three-point losses coming against Creighton on Nov. 22 and LSU on Dec. 28.

The path to Auburn getting its first statement win of the season and taking down Arkansas is narrow, but not impossible. Here's a scouting report of the Razorbacks and our score prediction.

Newcomers lead the way, but some notable injuries

The 25-point performance against Missouri was impressive for Council, but it was nothing new for the Wichita State transfer. Council is in the midst of his first season at Arkansas after spending the last two years with the Shockers, where he averaged 7.1 points as a freshman and 12.0 as a sophomore.

He paces the Razorbacks this season, though, scoring an average of 18.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field. And he's not the only new face to be putting up significant numbers, either, as freshman guard and former five-star recruit Anthony Black is posting 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists per contest.

The No. 1 recruit from the class of 2022, Nick Smith Jr., is also on the roster, but he was ruled out indefinitely Dec. 21 for what the team called "right knee management." Sophomore Trevon Brazile, another newcomer who spent his freshman year at Missouri, is already out for the season with a torn ACL.

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Attack the glass

For all of Auburn's faults on the offensive end of the floor, no one can accuse the Tigers of not getting after it on the glass. Auburn averages 39.4 rebounds per game, which ranks third in the SEC. The Razorbacks average 35.9, which is eighth-best in the conference.

More specifically, Auburn averages four more offensive rebounds than Arkansas. The inefficiency of Auburn's offense leads to more opportunities for boards, no doubt, but the Tigers have outrebounded opponents 158-110 over their last four games. They've got some momentum going in that category.

Auburn needs to take advantage of every opportunity it has against Arkansas, including getting to every loose ball and missed shot.

Defensive strategy

Following the loss to Georgia, coach Bruce Pearl discussed whether or not he should change how he instructs his guards to play defense. Terry Roberts had just scored 26 points, and in losses against USC and Memphis earlier this season, guards Boogie Ellis (28 points) and Kendric Davis (27 points) went off.

The change Pearl pondered is associated with Auburn's defense of ball screens. The coach said the Tigers may adjust and tell his guards to go under screens against certain teams. This will give them a better opportunity to stay in front of opposing guards, but will also open the door for the ball handler to have more open looks from 3-point range. It's a catch-22.

"It's not something that I've done before very often, but keeping guards in front of us has become an issue," Pearl said.

Black is the only healthy player shooting it from beyond the arc at a rate over 30%. As a team, the Razorbacks have connected on 29.9% of their attempts from long range this season.

Score prediction

Arkansas 72, Auburn 62: The Razorbacks are too talented to pick against them, but a gritty Tigers team with the energy of their home crowd behind it should keep things within striking distance. Not a blowout, but not the signature performance Auburn is searching for, either.

Richard Silva is the Auburn beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on Twitter @rich_silva18.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn basketball vs. Arkansas: Our scouting report, score prediction