Auburn basketball vs. Houston: Our scouting report, score prediction
BIRMINGHAM — Despite losing Jabari Smith Jr. and Walker Kessler to the NBA, Auburn basketball has already matched its postseason success from a year ago.
The Tigers, who beat Iowa by eight points Thursday behind Johni Broome's double-double, have moved on to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. They'll match up in a Midwest Region game with No. 1-seeded Houston (32-3) in Legacy Arena on Saturday (6:10 p.m. CT, TBS).
Auburn (21-12) had the good fortune of landing in Birmingham for the first couple rounds of March Madness. When Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson learned of that on Selection Sunday, he made a tongue-in-cheek remark: "So, Auburn gets to play in Birmingham?" he asked. "Maybe we should've been a 9-seed."
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Sampson conceded after his team beat Northern Kentucky on Thursday that every program in the NCAA Tournament wishes it had the same luck as Auburn, which benefited from the crowd backing it against Iowa.
"They came in clutch," Auburn's Dylan Cardwell said of the fans. "They came in handy. ... I’m very grateful we have them because we feed off their energy, and it’s a blessing to play in Birmingham.”
Here's our scouting report for Saturday's matchup, and our score prediction.
Injury bug
Houston is reeling in the backcourt. Star senior Marcus Sasser, who is averaging a team-high 17.1 points per game on 43.9% shooting, has been dealing with a groin injury. It kept him out of the AAC Tournament's title game and limited him to 14 minutes against Northern Kentucky.
Not only that, but Sampson is also worried about Jamal Shead's knee, according to CBS Sports reporter Tracy Wolfson. Sampson mentioned postgame that Shead was "battling through an injury" and added that Sasser decided to take himself out after giving it a shot versus the Norse.
"Marcus knows his body better than anybody in this room, including me," Sampson said. "... So, obviously he got out there and didn't feel like he could, so he shut it down, which is the right thing to do."
Turning the Cougars over
The Cougars average only 9.9 turnovers per game, which is among the top 20 in the country.
Against Northern Kentucky, though, Houston gave the ball away a whopping 17 times, which is what allowed the Norse to stay in it for so long. The Cougars pulled away later, but it was a five-point game with 3:30 left.
All of those turnovers gave Northern Kentucky chances in transition. The Norse outscored Houston 11-4 on fastbreaks and logged nine steals to the Cougars' three. Northern Kentucky also dominated the offensive glass, finishing with an 18-11 advantage that led to 21 second-chance points.
With the Tigers forcing six steals against Iowa and scoring 26 fast-break points, there's an opportunity for them to get out and run in transition versus Houston.
Auburn's bench
Auburn's win over the Hawkeyes might've been its most well-rounded victory of the season. Six players scored in double figures and two − Johni Broome and Allen Flanigan − registered double-doubles.
But the Tigers also got some key production off the bench. K.D. Johnson and Tre Donaldson each scored 11 points, with the latter hitting three 3-pointers in the second half. Knocking off Houston will prove to be a lot more realistic for Auburn if it can get help from the top of its rotation to the bottom.
Score prediction
Houston 69, Auburn 68: The Tigers haven't won back-to-back games since January. Houston's injuries coupled with the home-like environment make this an extremely winnable game for Auburn, but the Cougars figure out a way to outlast the Tigers and send them home.
Richard Silva is the Auburn beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on Twitter @rich_silva18.
This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn basketball vs. Houston: Our scouting report, score prediction
