Auburn football vs. Houston in 2021 Birmingham Bowl: Scouting report, prediction

AUBURN — One of college football's most puzzling ranked teams presents a fascinating scout for Auburn football.

No. 21 Houston (11-2) is widely regarded as one of the best Group of Five programs this season, but its two losses came against its only Power Five conference opponent (Texas Tech) and its only ranked opponent (No. 4 Cincinnati).

What to make of the Cougars? Are the wins or the losses the defining body of work for Auburn (6-6) to study?

Here are three things to know about Houston and a prediction for the 2021 Birmingham Bowl, which kicks off at 11 a.m. CT Dec. 28 (ESPN) at Protective Stadium.

Savvy (but unproven?) offense

The Cougars are No. 14 in scoring offense (37.3 points per game) but only No. 58 in total offense (414.2 yards) and No. 59 in yards per play with 5.92. That disparity can be explained by an impressive ability to control the ball and manipulate the clock. Houston is No. 6 in FBS with an average time of possession of 33 minutes, 52 seconds.

The offense has an even run-pass balance only slightly skewed toward running, and its drives are methodically effective. Houston ranks No. 11 in the country in points per offensive play (0.509) and No. 12 with 1.12 net points per drive (2.78 per offensive drive, 1.66 allowed per defensive possession). It scores touchdowns on 70.4% of its red-zone trips, efficiently finishing drives. Freshman running back Alton McCaskill has 16 touchdowns and 883 yards.

But when that deliberate approach on offense is challenged by a tough opponent, the Cougars have been busted. They possessed the ball for more than 40 minutes of Saturday's AAC Championship Game, but Cincinnati held them to 1.8 yards per carry on 47 attempts and a 5-for-15 mark on third down. Against Texas Tech, the Cougars averaged 2.2 yards on 35 carries.

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Those running struggles against Power Five and ranked opponents affected Houston's ability to control the pace and open up the passing game — it combined for five interceptions against Texas Tech and Cincinnati. That all bodes well for an Auburn run defense (3.5 yards allowed per carry) that has been tested by SEC backs.

Tank Bigsby's playground?

Speaking of run defense, that's one of Houston's most staggering statistical differences between the 11 wins and the two losses. The Cougars boast the nation's No. 13 run defense on paper with 105.7 yards allowed per game and 3.32 per carry, but they were gashed on the ground by Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

In those 11 wins, Houston allowed 2.85 yards per carry — but the only top-35 running offense it faced was Navy, a team that compiles that yardage by running the triple option.

In the two losses, Cincinnati and Texas Tech had 28 carries each. Those two opponents combined for 6.34 yards per carry, mostly recently the Bearcats' 7.5-yard average. Houston looked like a completely different team with no answer for the run.

Auburn's roster happens to be equipped with a preseason first-team All-SEC running back. Tank Bigsby did not play in the Tigers' 2020 season bowl game because of COVID-19 last year. It's becoming more common for players to opt out of bowl games, so it wouldn't be unusual for Bigsby to not play in Birmingham while weighing his future options. But if the sophomore does play, this is Auburn's chance (with presumably a new offensive coordinator) to give the Tank a bloated stat line.

A catchy Tune

Houston junior quarterback Clayton Tune has had an impressive season. He is 17th in the country with 3,263 passing yards and generally was a disciplined decision-maker, completing 68.5% of passes with 28 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. His ESPN quarterback rating is 160.

His go-to target is Nathaniel Dell, who started his career as a redshirt at Alabama A&M in 2018. Dell has 12 touchdowns and ranks 15th in the country with 1,179 yards. If Auburn senior cornerback Roger McCreary decides to stick around one last game, the projected first-round draft pick will get one last fun challenge. Otherwise, it's the future of Auburn's secondary forced to reckon with Dell.

Tune's sack-adjusted rushing yards show that he's a solid contributor on the ground, too, with 63 carries and 359 yards. But his pass protection has been inconsistent; the offensive line's 38 sacks allowed are 111th in FBS. Sure enough, 12 of those sacks belong to Cincinnati and Texas Tech. The Bearcats wreaked havoc, bringing Tune down eight times. Auburn finished its regular season with an awe-inspiring seven-sack performance against No. 1 Alabama, so the pass rush can build on that in Birmingham.

Prediction

Houston 24, Auburn 21: So much about this game is dependent on who plays and who opts out for Auburn. The Tigers already know they'll be working with a backup quarterback. For now, slight edge to Houston, but the information will change.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Birmingham Bowl scouting report, prediction: Auburn football vs. Houston