The Aug. 2 primary saw record turnout. Will Kansas voters do it again in November?

When Rep. Stephanie Clayton knocks doors in her Overland Park district, it isn't uncommon to find the physical embodiment of the sky-high turnout the state saw in the Aug. 2 primary.

Clayton, a Democrat, said many families all turned out together to vote no in August on a measure that would have ended state constitutional abortion rights protections.

Democrats have hoped to retain that bloc of voters, generally younger women. But while many of those young people were sitting around the house buying textbooks three months ago, they now may well be on university campuses out-of-state.

That underscores the difficulty in repeating the lightning-in-a-bottle primary turnout on Nov. 8, when a nationally important governor's race between Gov. Laura Kelly and her Republican challenger, Attorney General Derek Schmidt, is on the ballot, as well as races for Congress, other statewide offices and the Kansas House.

"I don't know if you'll get Aug. 2 level turnout, because now people are somewhat complacent," Clayton said. "They're like: 'OK, Dobbs happened, but we've preserved our rights in Kansas. We're good.' These people don't realize that this is like the end of a horror movie, and there's some skeleton reaching out in the grave waiting to drag us all back in.

"But most people don't think that way. They consider a win decisive, and, frankly, they want to go on with the rest of their lives. So, I just don't think that this election in general excites anyone."

More:Still thinking about Kansas Election Day choices? We have all you need before voting.

Republicans, meanwhile, see hopes of a wave election nationally come back into focus after a series of dispiriting results, including the Kansas primary.

This has buoyed hopes that their own voters will turn out in droves on Election Day to boost Schmidt, attorney general nominee Kris Kobach and other candidates up and down the ballot.

Still, Sen. John Doll, R-Garden City, says he is beginning to see an apathy creep back in his corner of southwest Kansas after energy increased during the primary.

"It doesn't really matter who's running. That's just that's just the way it is," he said.

As candidates make their final pitch to Kansas voters, who shocked even longtime election observers by defying turnout projections the primary, the question has become if the electorate will do so again.

"There is that wildcard this year — that's different than any other year in Kansas and any other year ever — which is the Aug. 2 vote," said Bob Beatty, a professor of political science at Washburn University.

More:Polling shows Kansas governor, attorney general races as toss-ups. Who has the edge?

How will Kansas voter turnout compare to the Aug. 2 primary?

Turnout projections in the run-up to the Aug. 2 election predicted a rise above what was seen in a traditional primary election, impressive in its own right, given that the ballot didn't include competitive gubernatorial races.

Instead, voters smashed Secretary of State Scott Schwab's projection of 36% turnout, with 48% of registered voters casting a ballot. That mark is believed to be a primary election record, as were the 940,000 ballots cast — 400,000 more than the previous record.

The bulk of the rise was attributed to the constitutional amendment question, which came in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

About 56% of voters who turned out in August were women, according to a data analysis performed by the firm TargetSmart Insights, a historical anomaly. Voters under the age of 30 accounted for 14% of votes cast, also a rarity in Kansas when compared with recent elections.

Figuring out how many of those voters will turn back out in November has long been the ultimate question, particularly for Democrats.

Margaret Durr showed up at the Shawnee County Elections Office on Wednesday with little doubt she would be voting for Kelly.

Abortion, she said, was her top issue and she had proudly turned out in the August primary. But she was concerned that her fellow voters would feel likewise.

"It is hard to tell," Durr said.

Voter registration has ticked up even higher since the Aug. 2 vote, with a net statewide increase of 6,567 as of September, notable as the number of voters registered ahead of the primary was already at an all-time high.

Advanced mail voting has increased 38% since the same point in the August primary, with early in-person voting rising 34% — but comparing early voting totals to past elections to see if voters are on track to reaching that mark is difficult, experts caution.

"I'm sure there's interesting statistics to note there," said Patrick Miller, a professor of political science at the University of Kansas. "But I think it is very dangerous and unwarranted to read too much into that to the point of making conclusions or projections."

While Laura Kelly isn't talking about abortion, other candidates are

For Democrats after the Aug. 2 primary, the playbook for success in November seemed clear: Talk about abortion.

This was a role reversal, with Republicans for years believing they had the upper hand in using abortion rights as a way to motivate voters. But Democrats believed the success in attracting independent voters to oppose the amendment, as well as a wave of younger, female voters, meant the tide had turned.

Someone, however, forgot to tell Kelly the plan.

While the governor has used the issue as a calling card to attract donors, she has made relatively little mention of it while campaigning in Kansas.

"I think people in the state of Kansas want me to talk about and focus on the issues that make a difference in their everyday lives," Kelly told reporters after a roundtable event on supporting military families last month.

There has been little change in the issues Kelly has focused on, namely education funding, economic development and attempting to tie Schmidt to the administration of former Gov. Sam Brownback.

"Kelly has run one of the most disciplined campaigns that I've seen in many years," Beatty said. "And they are totally committed to their strategy, win or lose."

Christopher Reeves, a former Democratic National Committeeman for Kansas, said while Kelly did talk about it briefly, other Republican candidates — particularly Kobach — have continued to talk about the issue, doing the job for her.

"Should she have talked about it more? That is going to be a question," he said. "But I think the moment that vote no came through as resoundingly as it did, she didn't really have to."

Other Democratic candidates have been much more open on the issue.

Chris Mann, the Democrat candidate for attorney general, recently rolled out an ad featuring former Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger, a Republican, criticizing Kobach's position on abortion as "too extreme," including his plan to institute changes to the judicial selection process with an eye towards undoing court rulings protecting abortion rights.

In the Kansas City-area 3rd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, Kansas' lone Democrat in Congress, has likewise attacked her GOP opponent, Amanda Adkins, who supported the August constitutional amendment but has also said abortion rights should be settled at the state level.

"Your answer seems to change, depending on who the audience is," Davids said during a debate last month. "Frankly, it is very concerning and says a lot about what kind of representative you would be."

Polling has shown Davids is performing well in the 3rd District. A New York Times/Siena College poll found her leading Adkins by 14 points, though Davids' campaign was quick to tamp down expectations.

Still, the result has caused some optimism from Democrats that voters will turn out in Johnson County, an area where Kelly must win handedly to remain competitive, prompting some observers to theorize that Davids could actually bolster the governor's vote share in the region.

"If (the poll) is anywhere near close, Davids obviously wins and that electorate that shows up helps Kelly a lot," Beatty said.

Derek Schmidt hopes for boost in attempt to shore up conservative base

Schmidt, meanwhile, has also doubled down on his core issues in recent weeks, rolling out an ad Wednesday attacking Kelly for closing schools during the COVID-19 pandemic and criticizing struggles at the Kansas Department of Labor under her administration.

This comes after a series of moves seemingly designed to gin up excitement among conservative voters.

Schmidt and his allies launched an attack in October, criticizing Kelly over allegations that the Kansas Department of Commerce funded all-ages drag shows in Wichita in Lawrence, though the agency and organizers say they didn't use state grant money for the events.

"I think that for most people, their focus right now is on the economy, is on inflation, is on gas prices, is on what is really personally affecting them," said Rep. Stephen Owens, R-Hesston. "However, those issues absolutely resonate with people."

Schmidt appeared with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in an Olathe event in early October, though he also combined that with later appearances with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and, most notably, former Vice President Mike Pence.

Days after his appearance with Pence, the vice president's former running mate, Donald Trump, cut a video outlining his reasons for backing Schmidt. After months of largely eschewing any mention of Trump's endorsement from last summer, Schmidt's campaign shared the message on his social media channels.

And Schmidt has stepped back in the Kansas City-area media market in recent weeks, instead gravitating toward Wichita, Topeka and, to a lesser extent, the Joplin, Mo., market that also includes Pittsburg.

Some have theorized that Schmidt's efforts are a way of blunting the impact of independent Dennis Pyle, a Hiawatha state senator, who is on the ballot. Democrats have been covertly helping Pyle with mailers, texts and radio ads, though Schmidt's campaign has said they don't believe voters will be fooled.

More:Schmidt ad says Democrats are 'trying to steal' Kansas governor's race by boosting Dennis Pyle

For his part, Doll, the Garden City senator, said he has had many voters come up to ask him about the merits of Kelly and Schmidt, having worked alongside both in elected office. Pyle? Not so much.

But he also said moderate voters could be collateral damage.

"His campaign had to decide what they wanted to do," Doll said. "And what they did is they had Derek go far right. I've talked to moderates, and they scared them off."

For his part, Schmidt has said he is unconcerned about reaching moderate voters and his base.

"As we come down the homestretch, it's always important to make sure that all of our supporters are fully engaged and turn out," Schmidt told reporters at an event last week. "We do that every election, and we focus across the spectrum of our support."

Voters like Mel Berg are a potential sign that Schmidt's messaging might be landing.

While never a fan of Kelly, Berg said his decision on who to vote for solidified based off the governor's handling of COVID-19 and, most importantly, her veto of a bill that would have banned transgender athletes in women's sports.

"It doesn't make sense," he said.

Initial expectations of a "red wave," or a cascade of conservative victories across the United States, faded and Democrats thought that abortion could actually give them the upper hand at the polls.

Now those expectations have also gone by the wayside, and polls nationally are a mixed bag, though they appear to indicate more Republican enthusiasm.

Kansas, observers are quick to point out, can be immune from national trends, meaning Kelly might withstand a burst of Republican victories in more moderate states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

But Schmidt also could prevail if Republicans are more energized than initially anticipated.

"Republicans all around the country this year, even people who are far more moderate than Derek Schmidt, are talking a lot about these culture war issues," Miller said. "A lot of it is about motivating that Republican base and really revving up that conservative turnout in a year where Republicans seem more enthusiastic to vote."

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: After historic Kansas primary, will voters show up in governor's race?