Aug. 23 primary: Marion election official predicts dismal 25% voter turnout on Tuesday

Supervisor of Elections Wesley Wilcox believes only 25% of Marion County voters will actually cast a ballot in Tuesdays primary election, including those who already voted by mail and at early voting sites.

If his prediction holds true, that means nearly 200,000 of the 267,000 registered voters in Marion County will not cast a vote in the Aug. 23 primary, which will decide one Marion County commission and three school board seats. Three judge races are also on the ballot.

Voter turnout for the 2022 primary election had climbed to 14% (37,369 votes cast) on Monday, the day before precinct locations open. Those initial ballots are thanks to early voting and mail-in opportunities.

Will voter turnout bypass 2014 and 2018 primary elections?

Though only a quarter of the county's voters are expected to turn out, it is on pace to surpass the 2014 primary, which saw 16.5% turnout. In 2018, however, roughly 31.9% of voters cast a ballot.

Wilcox's estimation means that only 30,000 more people will head to the polls before they close at 7 p.m.

"We may get to 26%," Wilcox added in a Monday interview.

The turnout: How many Marion County voters, by party, have voted early or by mail?

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Early Monday morning. the www.votrmarion.gov website gave a detailed look at how many people had voted so far. The tally showed that only 9,190 people went to an early voting site in eight days, while 28,179 ballots had voted by mail.

The data accounts for roughly 14% of Marion County voters so far.

Here are the stats:

• There are 266,967 registered voters and 37,369 have cast a ballot for the Aug. 23 primary, a total voter turnout so far of 14%.

• Through Monday morning, that 17,861 Republicans have voted so far. That means 14.4% of the 123,919 Republicans have cast their votes.

• The site also revealed Monday morning that 15,688 Democrats have voted so far. That means 20% of the 78,455 Democrats have cast their votes.

• The site showed Monday morning that only 3,820 "other" voters (3,508 independents and 312 other parties) have cast ballots. That is only 5.4% of the 63,593 voters in that category.

Wilcox compared this off-year election, or an election season when the president is not on the ballot, to other off-year elections. Voter turnout during presidential elections usually tops 70%, while off-year turnouts tend to be less than 35%.

Wilcox said the reason for the lower turnout is due to which candidates are on the ballot.

He pointed to the 2018 primary, which featured both the Democratic and Republican primaries for governor. Only the Democrats have a gubernatorial primary this year, with Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried battling out to face Gov. Ron DeSantis in November.

Republicans lead Marion County with 46.4% of all voters, while Democrats have 29.4% and other parties, including Independents, have 24.2%.

Here are the candidates on the Aug. 23 primary ballot

Local elections:

• County Court Judge, Group 1 (Non-partisan): LeAnn Mackey-Barnes, Danielle B. Ruse, Renee Thompson.

• County Court Judge, Group 2 (Non-partisan): Lori Cotton, William Harris.

• County Commission, District 4 (Republican): Keith Poole (R), Rachel Sams (R), Carl Zalak III (R).

• School Board, District 2 (Non-partisan): Lori Conrad, Joseph Suranni.

• School Board, District 3 (Non-partisan): Eric Cummings, Steve Swett.

• School Board, District 5 (Non-partisan): Sarah James, Taylor Smith.

Legislative races:

• State Representative, District 20: Open primary: Luis Antonio Miguel (R) and Bobby Payne (R).

• State Representative, District 23: Open primary: Tod Cloud (R), Ralph E. Massullo Jr. (R), and Paul John Reinhardt (R).

• United States Representative, District 3:

Republican primary: Manuel P. Asensio (R), Kat Cammack (R), Justin Waters (R),

Democratic primary: Danielle Hawk (D), Tom Wells (D).

Joe Callahan can be reached at (352) 817-1750 or at joe.callahan@starbanner.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoeOcalaNews.¯

This article originally appeared on Ocala Star-Banner: 25% of Marion voters will decide many races on primary ballot