Austin's metro population could surpass New York City by 2100, study suggests. Why that's unlikely.

Nate Chute, Austin American-Statesman
·3 min read
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Could the population of Texas' four biggest metropolitan areas be almost 100 million by 2100? That's what moveBuddha, a relocation referral service, predicts in a study.

According to a post from the company, they applied 2010-2020 Census growth rates to project the largest metros by 2100, noting their methodology may be an "inexact science." Indeed, other projections for the size of populations by the start of the next century don't match the explosive growth moveBuddha suggests Texas could see.

More: Austin breaks into top 10 list of largest U.S. cities. See how other Texas cities ranked.

Here's what it says about Austin, which saw an explosive growth rate of nearly 33% during the last decade compared to other projections.

Austin would be third largest metro in the US, according to projection

While moveBuddha notes that interest in moving to Austin has slowed in recent months, the projection says the past decade's growth rate would make Austin the third largest metro in the United States by 2100. With a population of nearly 23 million, the city would be just ahead of Phoenix (22.7 million) and New York City (20.8 million).

Going up? Plans for 80-story residential tower in Austin scaled back by nearly half

The Austin metro population surpassed one million in 1995 and two million in 2015. According to a 2020 Statesman story, the city projected the metro population could double again to four million by 2045.

The Texas Demographic Center, however, forecasts growth rates for the metro area will slow over time.

According to their 2022 analysis, Austin metro's population growth will be 27.8% during this decade and fall to under 20% between 2050 and 2060. They say the combined population of Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson counties by 2060 will be 5.2 million — off pace with the population size projected by moveBuddha.

What would Austin's skyline look like in this future?

The moveBuddha study includes before and after images of what the skylines of the biggest US. cities would be, with several new skyscrapers featured in Austin. Here's a look at what they say the city could look like in 2021:

Indeed, the Austin skyline has dramatically changed over the last several years.

Statesman photojournalist Jay Janner has documented the change annually from the Austin City Limits Music Festival. Take a look at his photos through the years here:

What will the biggest US cities be in 2100?

The moveBuddha study suggests Dallas will become the largest metro by the turn of the century with a population of 33.9 million, with Houston in the second spot at almost 31.4 million.

Meet me in San Austin: It's time to explore the idea of an Austin-San Antonio 'mega-metro'

San Antonio metro is just outside the top ten of moveBuddha's study, with a population of nearly 11.4 million. Combined with Austin, those four cities would have a population of almost 99 million. Take a look at the full projections here:

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Population of US metros: Study says Austin bigger than NYC in future