Australia’s Ruling Party Retains Poll Lead on First Anniversary

(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s ruling Labor party maintained its election-winning lead in a new opinion poll conducted to mark the center-left government’s one-year anniversary since taking office.

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Labor leads the opposition Liberal-National coalition by 52% to 48% of the two-party preferred vote, which incorporates the preference flows of minor parties, according to a Freshwater Strategy poll published Saturday in the Australian Financial Review.

While that’s the same level as the election held 12 months ago, it’s down from the 54%-46% recorded in the previous survey in December, when the government was still in its so-called honeymoon phase. The latest poll of 1,005 people was conducted from May 15-17 and had a 3% margin of error.

The result comes after Labor last week announced Australia’s first budget surplus in 15 years as the government banked windfall revenue from high commodity prices to avoid further fueling inflation. Yet in restraining spending, the budget faced criticism for failing to tackle key challenges such as rising costs of living and a shortage of affordable housing.

The Freshwater Strategy poll showed Labor has surrendered its lead over the coalition as superior economic managers, now trailing the opposition 30% to 34%. A majority of respondents, or 52%, said the budget had increased the chances of another interest-rate hike.

The government has faced volatile economic conditions since coming to office, with an inflation breakout and the central bank delivering its most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 30 years. That’s squeezed Labor’s traditional lower-income supporters, while the budget’s efforts to avoid exacerbating inflation and pushing rates even higher has failed to make much impact.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese still leads opposition leader Peter Dutton by 51% to 33% as preferred PM, though that has narrowed from a 55% to 29% reading six months earlier.

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