Australian leader pushes for talks in the Pacific

Jan. 23—Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that as American leaders talk about U.S. strategy in the Pacific, they should have more of those conversations in the Pacific.

Morrison, who served as prime minister from 2018 to 2022 and remains in government as a member of Australia's parliament representing New South Wales, was on Oahu last week attending a two-day defense conference hosted by Honolulu think tank Pacific Forum that brought together military officials, academics and defense industry executives from around the world.

In an interview with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, he said that while he thinks there's a lot of expertise in places like Washington and New York, "if you're looking at where the rubber hits the road, this is where it does."

Oahu is the nerve center for U.S. military operations in the region, and money has flooded in for defense contracts as training operations have ramped up in the islands. But it's also a diplomatic hub with eight countries maintaining formal diplomatic outposts in Hawaii, and many others have appointed honorary consuls in the islands.

Morrison said that particularly for Pacific island nations, having officials from around the world come to their region to talk about policy is important as they face challenges like climate change and illegal fishing operations depleting fisheries communities depend on for food and work.

In October, officials met at the East-West Center at the University of Hawaii Manoa for the long-anticipated signing of a new 20-year extension of the Compact of Free Association agreements between the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the United States. Marshall Islands then-President David Kabua, a University of Hawaii graduate, was among those present.

"They can go to the White House, they can go to Beijing, but they're much happier sitting and talking in their own region, and I think that's the best place to have those discussions with them," said Morrison. "It's important to have those discussions because it does impact them, and that's true about talking about climate is talking about security."

Morrison played a key role in establishing the trilateral AUKUS agreement among the Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The three countries agreed to share technology and resources to build and operate new nuclear submarines. It also calls for increased cooperation on cyber operations, hypersonic and counter-­hypersonic missile technology, electronic warfare and information sharing.

Morrison said, "There's only one nation in the world that can potentially look after its own defense unilaterally in terms of the threats that are faced — it's the United States. Any other nation that pretends otherwise and thinks that its defense strategy can be built otherwise, I think is being naive and maybe a little romantic."

The agreement is largely focused on supporting operations in the Pacific amid tensions with China.

Beijing has become locked in a series of disputes with neighboring countries over maritime navigation and territorial rights in the South China Sea, a critical trade route that more than one-third of all trade moves through. China has claimed the entire waterway over the objections of neighboring countries that also use resources and shipping routes in the sea.

The U.S. and its allies, particularly Australia and Japan, have increased operations in the region, including so-called "freedom of navigation operations." China has accused those countries — particularly the United States — of stirring up trouble. Intellectuals in both the U.S. and China have drawn parallels between the current increased tensions and the Cold War.

During a visit to Honolulu in July, Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd, who also formerly served as the country's prime minister, argued that "this ain't a Cold War." He argued that while the U.S. and China are competing for influence around the globe, the competition has been largely bloodless and that "the United States remains China's largest trading partner, and China remains a major trading partner of the United States. So for those reasons we should be careful about using language which simply creates a trajectory for the future."

But during a Jan. 16 dinner at the Pacific Forum's conference held at the 'Alohilani Resort Waikiki Beach, Morrison told attendees that while the current situation isn't exactly the same as the Cold War, U.S. and Chinese interests are fundamentally at odds, and the prospect of that changing in the foreseeable future is "unlikely."

"It's kind to call it unlikely; it's diplomatic to call it unlikely," said Morrison. "But the implication of that is, well, if that's the case, the pretense that you can have these kumbaya sort of arrangements with the PRC are not only unlikely, they're actually quite unhelpful. Because it was that pervasive assumption over the globalization era that allowed the PRC to just continue to take slices."

The Chinese military has pushed into territories claimed by neighboring countries and built bases on disputed islands and reefs. A 2016 international court ruling in favor of the Philippines found that China's claims had "no legal basis," but the Chinese military has doubled down with ships occasionally harassing and attacking fishermen and other maritime workers from neighboring countries.

Morrison said, "We saw a constant pushing out, out, out, and no one said 'no' ... in a way that was important and could really change the tide. And so we all woke up to that, and we worked out that we had to start saying 'no' and there had to be a credible, effective deterrent that existed."

In November, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the situation was getting worse and that China was pushing farther into his country's territory during a speech at the Daniel K. Ino­uye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Waikiki during a stop in Hawaii on his way back to Manila from the 2023 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco.

"Unfortunately, I cannot report that the situation is improving," said Marcos. "The situation has become more dire than it was before. The nearest reefs that the (Chinese military) have started to show interest in, in terms of slowly using these atolls and shoals for building bases ... are approaching closer and closer to the Philippine coastline. And the nearest one is now around 60 nautical miles from the nearest Philippine coast."

Ongoing attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea by Yemeni-based Houthi militants have already led to massive spikes in costs and are affecting the global economy. But Morrison said that pales in comparison with the potential destruction and economic fallout of a major conflict in the Pacific. The establishment of blockades or the breakout of open conflict in the South China Sea could shut down the world's busiest trade route and throw the global economy into chaos.

"As awful as the conflicts are in the Middle East and Ukraine, compared to a possible hot conflict in the Taiwan Strait? There is not a part of the globe that would not be affected by that," Morrison told the Star-­Advertiser. "So it is important to address these sorts of conflicts, like trying to achieve peace in the Sudan. There's no shortage of conflicts all around the world. But in terms of what conflicts completely can change life as we know it all around the world, well, that's here."

One of the potential flashpoints that most worries many observers is Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is one of the world's busiest shipping routes, and for the U.S. and many other countries, Taiwan itself is a key trading partner and one of the main sources of semiconductors many companies rely on to make their products work.

This month the country held elections in which current Vice President Lai Ching-te won the vote, giving Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party a historic third consecutive presidential victory. Lai told supporters at a rally after his win that "this is a night that belongs to Taiwan. We managed to keep Taiwan on the map of the world. The election has shown the world the commitment of the Taiwanese people to democracy, which I hope China can understand."

Beijing considers self-ruled Taiwan to be a rogue province, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to bring it under its control by military force if necessary. China has been building up its missile and naval forces around the Taiwan Strait. Some American officials have asserted that Beijing intends to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of the decade. But Morrison expressed doubt.

"That capability doesn't exist yet," said Morrison. "They've got a clear time frame to achieve it, but having the time frame to achieve the capability is not the same as having intent to use it. I still believe that it would be China's objective for reunification to be without conflict. Because that conflict scenario is not a good one. For (China) the economic catastrophe alone of that event would make COVID look like a sniff. It would be catastrophic ... so I think their intention is to bully and coerce and to do all of that and try to force an outcome that doesn't require (war), and I still believe they think they can achieve it that way."

Correction: David Kabua is a former president of the Marshall Islands. He was succeeded this month by President Hilda Heine. An earlier version of this story referred to Kabua as the current president.