BA.2 COVID wave: Is the U.S. underselling or overreacting?
“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.
What’s happening
Cases of COVID-19 in the United States, which had been declining sharply since the peak of the Omicron wave in January, have begun to tick upwards over the past few weeks.
At this point, nationwide numbers are still lower than they have been for many months, but parts of the country — particularly the Northeast — have seen cases rise at a faster rate. This increase in infections is driven by a subvariant of Omicron called BA.2. Though BA.2 doesn’t appear to cause more severe infections or evade immunity any more effectively than the first version of Omicron, it does seem to be substantially more infectious.
BA.2 has caused a major surge in China, where tens of millions of people have been forced into lockdown as part of the government’s strict COVID suppression strategy. Several European countries also experienced a significant spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths during a BA.2-driven wave that peaked on the continent in mid-March. Events in Europe have typically served as a preview of what to expect in the U.S. throughout the pandemic. Health experts, though, say there’s reason to believe that may not be the case this time around.
This new uptick serves as the first test of a scaled-back COVID response strategy that has seen major interventions like mask mandates, school closures and vaccine requirements repealed. After the Omicron wave, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revised the metrics it uses to monitor and respond to COVID surges. Rather than case numbers and positivity rates as primary measures of community threat levels, the agency is now focusing on hospitalizations and capacity of local health systems.
Why there’s debate
Many experts have expressed concern that the U.S. is being too lax about the dangers posed by BA.2. They argue that, though it may not be as severe as some previous surges, any new wave of infections represents suffering and death that could be avoided if stronger mitigation measures were kept in place. There are also fears that health authorities won’t be able to keep track of how widespread infections are because of limited testing availability and the increased use of at-home tests that don’t get logged in government data.
But others are confident that the U.S. is in a strong position to weather the BA.2 wave without having to reinstate COVID policies used during previous surges. They say that between vaccinations and previous infections, most Americans now have a substantial amount of immunity that will protect them from severe infections. Some also argue that health authorities need to be careful about potentially overreacting to upticks in cases, which they say could make the public less willing to adhere to stricter protocols if they become truly necessary in the future.
What’s next
President Biden has called on Congress to approve additional funding for vaccinations, testing and COVID treatments. But the fate of a $10 billion bipartisan package is now in question because of disagreement over Biden’s plan to repeal a controversial immigration policy that Senate Republicans and a handful of Democrats want to keep in place.
Perspectives
Americans have the tools to crush BA.2, but don’t appear willing to use them
“In theory, the nation could be poised to stem BA.2’s inbound tide, and make this variant’s cameo our least devastating to date. But theory, at this point, seems unlikely to translate into practice.” — Katherine J. Wu, The Atlantic
The U.S. is in good shape when it comes to metrics that matter most
“Things seem to be looking up as the US crosses into year three of the Covid-19 pandemic. Vaccines still do a good job of keeping people alive and out of the hospital. There's increasing access to tests and treatments. The numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are heading in the right direction.” — Jen Christensen, CNN
The pandemic has repeatedly shown that letting our guard down is a mistake
“Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. I’ve said from the beginning that it’s better to be on the more aggressive end when it comes to fighting this sneaky, unpredictable virus.” — Todd Ellerin, infectious disease expert, to Boston Herald
Even before BA.2, COVID deaths were unacceptably high
“Keep in mind that we aren’t really in a COVID lull, either. … The virus is still causing hundreds of deaths every day in the U.S.” — Alison McCook, Philadelphia Inquirer
There’s real danger in overreacting to slight upticks in case counts
“In the future, there really might be an instance when restrictions have to come back. For example, a new variant could arise that evades prior immunity and causes more deadly disease. We would want to have the option of reinstating mask mandates and other mitigation measures. But will people listen and follow the guidance at that time if they were not applied rationally before?” — Leana S. Wen, Washington Post
By the time the BA.2 wave starts to look bad, it may already be too late to contain it
“A lot of time has passed, and some people don’t even think they need a booster and aren’t concerned about this. I worry that as our immune memory starts to fade and we’re dealing with BA.2 (which is certainly here already), it will move faster than we’ll be able to detect, or than we’ll be able to respond to, both politically and from a public-health standpoint.” — Abraar Karan, infectious disease expert, to New York
The virus still poses a major threat to people in vulnerable groups
“The risks for the United States are clear. … This doesn’t mean that BA.2 will inevitably cause a deadly surge. But it does mean that cases may increase soon, and that unvaccinated and under-vaccinated elderly and medically vulnerable people could face a deadly threat.” — Tom Frieden, former CDC director, New York Times
So many Americans have already been infected that the virus has less space to spread
“One factor in the U.S.’s favor is that the BA.1 Omicron wave probably infected a larger proportion of the U.S. population than in most European countries, so the immunity from that could limit the duration of the BA.2 wave as well as its severity. However, the U.S. can’t afford to be too relaxed. Its vaccine coverage is not as good as that in most European countries.” — Therese Raphael and Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg
It’s misleading to suggest the U.S. is approaching BA.2 more casually than previous waves
“While a few liberal states and cities only recently lifted their mask mandates, much of the country returned to ‘normal’ long ago. It’s unlikely, in other words, that changing behavior will make as much difference in the United States as it’s making in Europe, for the simple reason that U.S. behavior isn’t really changing all that much.” — Andrew Romano, Yahoo News
Even if BA.2 doesn’t cause a major surge, greater threats will come in the future
“Rather than make investments now that could pay off when Covid-19 inevitably surges again, Congress is cutting corners. The cost of this myopia could end up being felt all over the world in the months to come.” — Dylan Scott, Vox
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Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: Getty Images
