Back-to-back rainstorms to lead to weekend washout in Northeast
Two storms will pivot into the northeastern United States and bring their fair share of adverse conditions during the final days of April and the beginning of May, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Even though much of the Northeast will benefit from a thorough soaking due to abnormally dry conditions in recent months that have contributed to several large wildfires, the timing of the upcoming rain will likely be unwelcomed by many.
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Flooding problems will be limited because both storms will move along at a swift pace. The combination of the two storms will bring at least 1-2 inches of rain over a broad area. A drenching 2-4 inches is on tap for much of the Atlantic seaboard and the central Appalachians, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 7 inches is most likely to occur. That is enough rain to alleviate dry conditions but leave some yards and athletic fields saturated.
The first storm - which is the weaker of the two - will still pack plenty of rain and stir up winds along the mid-Atlantic coast for a time. Moisture from that first storm has already led to rounds of severe thunderstorms and has been responsible for pockets of heavy rain in the Southern states at midweek.
That moisture drifted northeastward as the first storm moved along, and by daybreak on Friday, rain had already spread over portions of Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. That drenching rain expanded northeastward through Friday night across much of the rest of the mid-Atlantic region, with a swath of reports of 3-5 inches of rain in central Delaware as of early Saturday morning.
Wet driving conditions extended well into Friday night in Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, with similar conditions expected to last into Saturday in New York City. However, it may take until Saturday afternoon or evening for the first batch of heavy rain to reach Boston. Water will collect in poor drainage areas of streets and highways. Spotty rain and drizzle may linger in the wake of the first storm's heavy rain along the Interstate 95 corridor.
The same storm kicked up winds along the mid-Atlantic coast from eastern North Carolina to New Jersey through Friday night.
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Winds from the east and northeast averaged 15-25 mph, but gusts ranged between 30 and 40 mph Friday night in spots. Even though the period of strong winds from the first storm was brief, it led to rough surf, above-normal tides and minor coastal flooding around high tide. The risk of tidal flooding extended inland to locations along the Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay and the tidal rivers in the region.
Stiff easterly winds continued to expand northward Friday night in southern New England, where they may persist into much of Saturday.
As the first storm continues to lift northward and press on into Canada, it will begin to run out of steam and some dry air from the Midwest will be drawn in for a time in part of the Northeast. This will allow a gap in the rain for portions of the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic.
The duration of the dry weather may only be limited to a few hours during Saturday afternoon or evening in the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic and on Sunday in New England. As aforementioned, the gap in drenching rain may be in the form of occasional drizzle and spotty showers.
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Plenty of moisture will be left behind in the South for a stronger storm to gather and fling toward the Northeast later this weekend and early next week.
By Sunday, much of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic will be dealing with more drenching rain. Dry weather will start the day in New York City, but it won't stick around. Downpours, including some thunder and lightning in some locations, will persist in this area from Sunday afternoon well into Sunday night.
The rain will spread over New England and upstate New York late in the day Sunday and is likely to last into Monday morning.
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Because the second storm will be stronger than the first, winds along the coast from the Delmarva Peninsula to New York City and eastern New England will be stronger as well. Most wind gusts will range between 40 and 50 mph, but a few stronger gusts are likely.
"The strongest winds will be on the front side of the second storm with a six- to 12-hour period where easterly gusts to 60 mph are possible along the coast from Delaware and New Jersey to Maine," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "These onshore winds combined with astronomical tides will lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion, with the highest probability for large waves and inundation in the coastal areas of Massachusetts, such as in Scituate, just south of Boston, from Sunday night to early Monday."
Coastal flooding is likely to be limited to one high-tide cycle with this fast-moving storm.
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Winds will be strong enough along the coast to cause some tree limbs to break and topple poorly rooted trees. Any falling trees and limbs will pose a hazard for pedestrians and are likely to trigger power outages on a sporadic or regional level.
In general, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will be mainly in the 40s F in the Northeast due to the wind and rain and could dip into the 30s at times.
Because the second storm may bring heavier rain compared to the first storm and so soon after a recent soaking, there will be a better chance of some quick rises on small streams. Some street and highway flooding is likely.
Some tropical moisture from the Caribbean may be drawn into the second storm for a time with the most substantial impacts from a potential brief atmospheric river expected in New England and Atlantic Canada coming in the form of torrential rain.
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Just like Friday afternoon to Friday night, the period from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning is a busy time at the major airport hubs in the region. As a result, there are likely to be hundreds of flight delays and cancellations due to the storm.
Conditions will rapidly improve in the mid-Atlantic from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City on Monday, but some aircraft and crews may still be displaced by the storm's activity from Sunday night. Delays and flight cancellations may persist in Boston into the afternoon on Monday.
Chillier air will circulate in on the backside of the storm.
The air will be cold enough to allow wet snow or mixed rain and snow showers in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan through this weekend and during the early to middle part of next week around the Great Lakes and into portions of New York state, Pennsylvania and northeastern Ohio.
A portion of Michigan's Upper Peninsula will be buried under 1-2 feet of wet snow this weekend.
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Where the sky becomes clear and winds diminish during the middle to the second half of next week, the risk of frosts and freezes will increase.
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