Ballot amendments have turned out Democrats in the past, now leaders want a replay for abortion

After underwhelming turnout in the 2022 midterm elections, Florida Democrats are banking on a ballot amendment to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution will motivate their voters. But that strategy has some challenges, judging by previous election years and the challenges still facing the ballot amendment.

During a recent meeting of the North County Democrats club in North Palm Beach, Florida Democratic Party Executive Director Phillip Jerez cited how electorates across the United States have gone to the polls, in red and blue states, to ratify abortion rights. And he praised the North County Democrats for contributing to a similar effort taking place in Florida.

“It fills my heart with joy to know that this club, the North County Democrats, have already collected over 1,500 petitions to get abortion on the map,” Jerez said. “We can and will do this."

Currently, the abortion rights amendment initiative has a little more than half of the 891,523 signatures needed to make it on the ballot by Feb. 1.

"Just look at the results across the country," Jerez said during the Nov. 12 meeting, mentioning abortion access victories in Kentucky, New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio on Nov. 7. "We saw voters there reject extremism and pass a constitutional right to an abortion by over 60%.”

Jerez said that he believed Florida voters would turn out in 2024 to approve an abortion access amendment as they did in previous amendment votes, such as allowing felons to vote, legalizing medical marijuana for those suffering a variety of health conditions and raising the minimum wage gradually to $15 an hour.

Championing the abortion access amendment is a piece of a larger strategy for state Democrats in 2024, Jerez said, with the goal of reversing a series of electoral losses, dwindling voter registrations and significant erosion of power. Today, Republicans in Florida enjoy an advantage in voter registrations, supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature and a stranglehold in all branches of government.

"This group knows that in order to take back Florida, we have to get back to the basics, and that starts with getting out of the superminority in the Legislature, getting abortion not only on the ballot but passed into law," Jerez told the Democratic club.

A year out from the November 2024 election, here are three things to keep in mind:

1. Abortion campaign issue helped Democrats in U.S. in 2022, but not in Florida

The U.S. Supreme Court's voiding of Roe v. Wade is said to have altered the political dynamics in favor of Democrats last year by assisting them in winning over swing voters and spurring Democratic voters to the polls.

Midterm election exit polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania listed abortion as the top issue. Democrats saw wins in competitive states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, as the party won governorships and kept control of the U.S. Senate.

Five states protected the right to abortions in 2022 with successful ballot amendments. Both Montana and Kentucky, both reliably red states, rejected restrictive proposals for abortion in their midterm ballot. Michigan, California and Vermont voters all backed abortion rights, too.

Yet despite Democrats aiming to crush a red wave in a post-Dobbs landscape, Florida Republicans had a clean sweep of victories. These wins were punctuated by a nearly 20-point landslide margin for Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Republicans successfully flipped Palm Beach (for the first time since 1986) and Miami-Dade counties.

2. Abortion constitutional amendment on ballot next year isn't a given

The abortion rights amendment initiative has a long way to go, needing about 440,000 signatures by Feb. 1. The coalition of organizations sponsoring the amendment, Floridians Protecting Freedom, said it aims to have the signatures collected by Dec. 31 to avoid any delays in signature verification. That's only a little more than a month away.

In addition, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, a Republican, adamantly opposes the ballot item. And the wording of the proposed amendment needs to secure mandatory approval from the Florida Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority.

3. Would an abortion amendment lead to higher voter turnout?

Jerez pointed out that Floridians in the past approved seemingly pro-Democratic amendments related to felons' voting rights, expanded medical marijuana rules and higher minimum wage.

But Florida is one of 11 states that requires a supermajority of 60% "yes" votes to write a ballot amendment into the state constitution. This begs the question of whether non-Democratic Party voters — meaning Republicans, no-party affiliated ones and members of the minor parties — really meant to back a Democratic initiative or simply just thought the item was a good idea.

Recently, in reflecting on the successful passage of a 2018 amendment banning greyhound racing, advocates for the measure told The Palm Beach Post they believed their proposal passed because it enjoyed broad bipartisan support among voters who did not see it as either a liberal or conservative initiative.

More: Greyhound amendment ended Florida dog racing. Five years later, some unfinished business.

Voter turnout low for Dems: The majority of Florida Democrats stayed home from the polls in 2022. What happens now?

Indeed, some of the more successful amendments were approved by voters in presidential election years known for higher voter turnout in Florida. The medical marijuana amendment was on the 2016 ballot, a year that drew 75% voter turnout in the general election. The minimum wage measure was also voted on in the 2020 general election, which registered 77% voter turnout.

Still, medical marijuana succeeded in 2018, which was a notable year for Democrats for the victory of Nikki Fried as agriculture commissioner. Fried, who currently serves as the Florida Democratic Party chair, was the first Democrat to win the seat since 1998 and was the only statewide Democrat to win a race that year.

Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said abortion incentivized turnout nationwide in 2022 except in Florida, which has since shifted into red territory. Yet Jewett pointed out that states like Ohio and Kansas, which have voted more red than Florida in some elections, successfully passed abortion measures.

The Civics Project: In abortion laws, who rules - the state or federal courts?

This month, Ohio voters passed an amendment that would protect abortion rights, and Kansas voters rejected an anti-abortion amendment in August 2022 that would have declared no right to abortion in the state.

If abortion is on the ballot in Florida next year, Jewett said he thinks it's possible that Democrats could turn out to vote in larger numbers, especially in a presidential year. Although the possibility exists that non-Democrats could vote for the amendment to protect reproductive rights and then, having satisfied that concern, vote a straight GOP ballot.

"I don't think it's by itself gonna guarantee Democrats a path to victory, but I do think that it's likely that it will help turnout," Jewett said. "It's an issue that Democrats really care about quite a bit."

Stephany Matat is a politics reporter for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY-Florida network. Reach her at smatat@pbpost.com. Support local journalism: Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Florida Democrats relying on abortion amendment to help turn out voters