Balmy January in Berks lands among top-five warmest to open a year

Feb. 4—The month of January was almost left behind in the rush of warm weather this century, having not placed a month among the top-five-warmest year openers in the Berks County temperature database.

That ended with last month and a fourth-place showing at a 40.7-degree average at Reading Regional Airport, the official National Weather Service site in Berks.

The only other January that had placed among the 10 warmest this century was 2006 at 38.0 degrees, which has been pushed down to ninth warmest. The mild midcentury period shows strong on the 10-warmest-Januarys list.

Only September is left without an entry in the top five in the 21st century, but it does have a No. 6 from 2005. Midcentury months also dominate the warmest Septembers list.

The leader in January warmth is 1932 at 43.0 degrees.

The story for January 2023 was much the same as other recent months landing in the top five or 10: No major spikes in temperature, just a consistently warmer-than-normal pattern.

Last month was in the running for the first January without even a trace of snow. That is, until the 25th. Even that snowfall knocked the month off the top-10 list for least snowfall in January.

"Any snow total greater than 0.5 inch would be off this 10-least list," said Jeffrey R. Stoudt, retired meteorologist and Berks weather historian. "Four had only traces, most recently 2006.

"A bit of luck or bad luck (depending on personal perspective) played into that brief but intense snowstorm on the 25th.

Nothing much was going on that day and the forecasts looked like they weren't going to pan out until, Stoudt said, "an area of snow quickly developed over a cluster of counties, which included Berks, shortly before 11 a.m. Snow reached the ground at nearly the same time within those counties and quickly became heavy. Snow began in York, Lancaster and Reading at nearly the same time."

What about January 1932?

A comparison with January 1932 and some of the other Januarys from that era shows some similarities to last month.

"I find several parallels between 1931-1932 and this season," Stoudt said. "The one that really stands out is a brief shot of arctic air at the cusp of January/February 1932. Mildness quickly returned and held through February."

But March 1932 became bitterly cold — for a March — because of a flip in the prevailing pattern. That is forecast to happen in 2023.

Stoudt believes that Punxsutawney Phil's handlers are wise to the extended forecast.

"I believe forecasters that contrive the groundhog's 'sighting' are aware of this pattern and are predicting six more weeks based on a likely March setback, even though the weather for most of February might seem to indicate the groundhog was wrong," Stoudt said. "The expected March setback should vindicate the groundhog's forecast. However, these expected trends could be manipulated to make the rodent to appear right or wrong regardless of forecast of six more weeks or early spring."

Other notable stats from last month:

—The coolest monthly temperature of 23 degrees tied with 1937 for that category.

—No ice day — temperature staying 32 degrees or lower — joins three other Januarys with none.

—12 days with a low at or below 32 is second fewest; only 1932 is less with five.

One major difference between this season and that of 81 years ago is that December 1931 did not have an arctic outbreak, as did December 2022, Stoudt added.

Latest arctic outbreak

The brief rush of arctic air into the region during the weekend sideswiped southeastern Pennsylvania. One didn't have to look far to the north to see more drastic cold.

The lows Saturday morning: Reading Regional, 11 degrees; Hazleton, zero; Poughkeepsie, N.Y., minus 7; and Keene, N.H., minus 16.

The arctic outbreak is expected to end as quickly as it started with a return to the conditions that dominated January.

AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines said last month saw an unusual pattern, with the northern branch of the jet stream staying well to the north most of the time.

"If you're a winter enthusiast it's been a sad time for you," he said. "For those who have to pay their heating bills, it's going to represent a 30% savings. To get a prolonged spell like we've had with no cold weather (last month) is unusual."

The thrust of it, Kines said, is that low pressure systems off the Aleutian Islands in the far northern Pacific Ocean have kept air moving from west to east through the Lower 48 and closed off access for arctic air to dive south, much of the time.

The ongoing La Nina in the eastern equatorial Pacific also plays a role in keeping the arctic air bottled up in the higher latitudes.

But all good things must end, and the same is true for the mild pattern.

"In general this pattern is going to persist into February and flip back to below normal (temperatures) by the end of the month," Kines said. "Spring might be delayed this year."

But, he said, below normal in late February and early March is not as cold as below normal in January.

And, that often March and April are cruel months, with warmth and the promise of spring followed by cold, until the warmer patterns firmly take over in May or so.

January weather

Temperature: 40.7°

Normal: 30.8°

Precipitation: 3.45″

Normal: 2.97″

Snow: 2.9 inches (season, 3.4″)

Ice days (32 degrees or lower): zero (season, 3)

Records

Low temperature: 46 degrees on the 3rd for mildest low (41: 1950, 1951 and 2019)

Warmest Januarys in Berks

43.0 degrees: 1932

41.2: 1950

40.8: 1933

40.7: 2023

39.2: 1913

39.1: 1998

38.8: 1937

38.6: 1949

38.0: 2006

37.2: 1947

Source: U.S. Weather Bureau/National Weather Service records dating to 1898

Precipitation totals in inches from the Berks Area Rainfall Network/with snow, where applicable:

Henningsville, 4.40/4.3; Shartlesville, 4.33/3.0; Oley Furnace, 4.19; Dryville, 4.18; Mohrsville SW, 4.13; Mohrsville, 4.08; Bernville, 4.07/2.7; Cacoosing, 4.0; Shillington, 3.97/2.2; Boyers Junction, 3.95; (East) Reading, 3.93/2.0; Hamburg, 3.90/2.8; Lincoln Park, 3.90/2.9; Cornwall Terrace, 3.87/3.1; Mohnton, 3.84; Wernersville, 3.84; Frystown, 3.74; West Reading, 3.70; Womelsdorf, 3.66; Harlem, 3.65; Lobachsville, 3.60/3.1; Greenfields, 3.54; State Hill, 3.52; Knauers, 3.46/1.0; Vinemont, 3.46/2.0; Elverson NE, 3.44/1.0; Gibraltar, 3.41/1.5; Morgantown, 3.37; Cumru Township building, 3.21; Reiffton, 3.15; New Morgan, 3.07/2.3.