Baltimore hasn’t seen any measurable snowfall yet this season. How rare is that?

The snowfall on the night of Feb. 21, 1973, set a record in Baltimore — though it was hardly memorable.

The storm lasted only 10 minutes, briefly hampering visibility as a little more than an inch of snow accumulated on the ground, according to the next morning’s Sun.

But it was the longest Baltimoreans have ever waited for the winter’s first measurable snowfall, at least since recordkeeping began in the late 1800s. The record has stood for the past 50 years, and it far surpassed the previous record set in 1914, when the first measurable snowfall occurred on Feb. 6.

The Sun bemoaned the end of the streak, likening it to “the baseball pitcher who watches a fluke late-inning hit spoil his chances for a shutout.”

With just over a week left in January, this winter is inching up the list. The National Weather Service is calling for rain, possibly mixed with snow, Wednesday morning, then no snow through at least Sunday.

Even if measurable snow comes soon, this season would still feature one of the five latest first snows for the Baltimore area in the 130 years since the National Weather Service started keeping track. (Since 1950, the snowfall data has been tabulated at BWI Marshall Airport. Before then, it was measured in downtown Baltimore.)

To be counted, a storm must bring at least a tenth of an inch of snow. There have been a few instances so far this year of “trace” amounts of snow.

In 130 years’ worth of data, just 17 winters have featured a first snowfall in the new year. The vast majority of first snows at the airport have occurred in late November or December, with the earliest first snow on Oct. 10, 1979.

But of those 17 first snow events in January and February, seven came in the 21st century, a potential signal that climate change could be leaving its mark on Baltimore winters.

Through Saturday, the average temperature this winter has been a little under 40.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 3.67 degrees above normal. If that margin holds for the entire season, this would be one of Baltimore’s 15 warmest winters on record.

The 1931-1932 season holds the record at 45.3 degrees. But the winters in 2019-2020, 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 are all in the top 10.

The least snowy winter in Baltimore was in 1949-1950, with the 1972-1973 season not far behind. But the 2011-2012 season also sits in the top five, alongside 2001-2002.

That warm weather is likely keeping the snow at bay, since there’s been a roughly average amount of precipitation. It’s just all been rain.

Snowfall in the colder reaches of Western Maryland has also lagged behind the average this year. Though November’s numbers were normal for Oakland in Garrett County in December, 10.2 inches of snow fell compared with the normal of about 21.4.

While it’s important not to read too much into weather data from any one year, climate scientists say they expect rising temperatures to reduce the probability of snowstorms in places like Baltimore.

Matt Fitzpatrick, an ecologist and associate director for research at the Appalachian Laboratory in Western Maryland, has researched the possible transformation of cities around the globe due to climate change.

By 2080, the climate in Baltimore is expected to feel more like that of Mississippi, Fitzpatrick found.

“I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say that by 2080, not only will we have much later and lesser snowfall in Baltimore — there will be winters where it probably doesn’t snow at all,” he said.

The transition toward that new reality could be beginning, he said.

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Maryland’s state climatologist and an associate research professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, urged caution when interpreting the city’s snowfall trends.

“It is difficult to attribute a specific trend to human climate change as natural decadal-to-multidecadal variability can induce similar trends,” he wrote in an email. “The site displacement from downtown to BWI can complicate the data analysis.”

In addition, the fact that there hasn’t been any snowfall this year might be related to the ongoing La Nina event, Ruiz-Barradas said. La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that brings cooler temperatures to the tropical Pacific Ocean, and impacts weather patterns across the United States. In the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore area, it usually means average or slightly above average temperatures, plus average or slightly below average precipitation.

Snow can be a “tricky science,” because it relies on several factors, including temperature and precipitation trends, said Jen Brady, senior data analyst at Climate Central, a nonprofit climate change research organization.

In some places, climate change could cause heavier snowfall. Warming temperatures could strengthen lake-effect snowstorms, she said, because lakes will freeze less often. Warmer air also holds more moisture.

But in the Baltimore area, “winter as a three-month season, in a lot of ways, is disappearing,” she said, and frequent snowfall is starting to disappear with it.

“Even when we do have snowfall it gets warm again, and it melts away,” she said. “So you don’t have the long-term snow cover that you’re used to seeing.”

There will still be big snowstorms and frigid cold days, but the baseline is changing.

“This is probably going to be the norm rather than what we remember from 20-30 years ago,” she said.

Baltimore Sun librarian Paul McCardell contributed to this article.