Scott, Dixon seek advantage in Vignarajah’s messy exit from Baltimore mayoral race

On the campaign trail, mayoral candidate Thiru Vignarajah was fond of telling city voters they shouldn’t have to choose between the “incompetence” of Mayor Brandon Scott and “corruption” in former Mayor Sheila Dixon.

The mantra was the centerpiece of his television ads, a part of his campaign kickoff remarks and repeated at debates and forums.

On Wednesday, Vignarajah chose “corruption.”

With less than 24 hours before the start of early voting, the former prosecutor halted his campaign and threw his support behind Dixon, whom he had assailed for months on the issue of her 2010 resignation amid an embezzlement conviction.

The question now, as the city enters the final week before the May 14 primary, is where Vignarajah’s supporters go — and if they follow his lead and embrace Dixon.

On its face, a recent poll for The Baltimore Sun suggests Vignarajah supporters may be inclined to support the former mayor. Of the likely Democratic primary voters polled, 48% reported Dixon was their second choice behind Vignarajah.

In reality, some observers say, the transition might not be as seamless as the Dixon team hopes.

“He just seemed a little smarter than the average bear,” Vignarajah supporter Joseph Ebbitt said.

Ebbitt, 68, who lives in the Lakeland neighborhood of South Baltimore, was among the likely Vignarajah voters polled by The Sun, University of Baltimore and FOX45 in April who named Dixon as their second choice.

But Ebbitt, who said he’s meant to cast his mail-in ballot for weeks, has now decided to go with Scott.

Ebbitt said he was “still in awe” of what he saw as Scott’s shortfalls, including a snafu involving $10 million in federal funds for housing because of an administrative mishap. But, he said, a return by Dixon to City Hall would be “too embarrassing” considering the gift card scandal that forced her from office. He had hoped Vignarajah was a better option.

Vignarajah’s exit sets up a scenario typically unseen in Baltimore’s crowded campaigns: a near head-to-head matchup. Scott, the mayor of four years, and Dixon, who held the position for three, will duke it out for the remainder of early voting, which ends Thursday, and on primary day.

The Scott-Dixon fight is far from a clean one-on-one matchup. Vignarajah’s late exit from the race came months too late to pull his name from the ballot, and the more than 17,000 voters cast mail-in ballots before he withdrew. Challenger Bob Wallace remains in the race, although polls indicate he has little support.

Vignarajah won’t be able to simply deliver his base to Dixon, said Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll. Some voters, about 19%, said they favored Scott as their second choice. And with Vignarajah’s name on the ballot, some voters will likely still pick him.

The poll also found Vignarajah voters were flexible, Raabe said. Just 41% said their vote for Vignarajah was firm, while 58% said their selection could change.

“When he gets out there and endorses another candidate, voters that are not firmly with him anyway are not necessarily going to listen to who he endorses,” Raabe said.

Complicating the choice for voters are lingering questions about the potential conditions of Vignarajah’s endorsement. Scott suggested the former mayor bought Vignarajah’s support, based upon Scott’s conversations with Vignarajah.

The mayor said he met with Vignarajah just hours before the Dixon endorsement was announced Wednesday. Vignarajah asked Scott to consider him for CEO of city schools or police commissioner in exchange for an endorsement, Scott said — a suggestion Scott said he rejected.

Vignarajah maintained he did not strike a deal with Dixon in exchange for his support, although he acknowledged making the offer to be “helpful” to a Dixon administration. Asked whether he discussed jobs he may be interested in with Dixon or other candidates, Vignarajah said it was not “productive to talk about that level of specifics.”

Dixon issued a statement that she made no promises of employment in a future administration. She didn’t answer questions from The Sun from about what Vignarajah may have asked for in exchange for dropping out.

2024 voter guide: Candidates for Baltimore mayor

Kaye Whitehead, a WEAA-FM host and associate professor at Loyola University, said she’s heard from Vignarajah’s supporters who are confused and have questions about his messy exit.

The messaging around the meetings with both candidates was far from “clean,” and even “a tad bit uncomfortable,” she said. Even if there wasn’t a deal, Vignarajah’s acknowledgement that he met with Scott before he endorsed Dixon raises questions about why he met with both candidates and if he is really fully supportive of Dixon.

“It’s less about his support of Sheila. It’s about what did Sheila promise him?” Whitehead said.

For voters who have not yet cast their ballots, allegiances are shifting.

Suzanne O’Grady, 60, said she would reluctantly vote for Scott after being excited to vote for Vignarajah.

A yoga teacher who lives across the street from the Inner Harbor, O’Grady said she was on the fence until an incident in mid-April in which she said she and her husband were walking along the harbor and a group of juveniles pushed her husband and slapped the back of his head. The couple did not immediately contact police, but an officer told her later to contact the mayor’s office. She said that after she did, she never got a full response. O’Grady said she wants Scott to take the issue of youth crime more seriously.

Vignarajah was “a breath of fresh air” in that respect, she said.

But she said there’s no way she’ll vote for Dixon.

“She should be forgiven and should be able to move on and whatever, but not again as mayor,” O’Grady said. “I have a real problem with that.”

Still, other Vignarajah voters eagerly embraced Dixon, such as the supporters who showed up to his joint news conference Wednesday with Dixon.

Sandra Seward said Vignarajah and Dixon’s platforms have converged in recent campaign events. They’ve found common ground on their opposition to the proposed Harborplace redevelopment and in support of community schools, he said.

“I think it’s very wise for them to work together as much as they can,” she said.

Raabe said the poll suggests Dixon and Vignarajah voters have different motivations, however. Of Dixon’s likely supporters, 44% said violence and crime were their chief concerns. Vignarajah voters mentioned crime, but were more focused on leadership qualities and community improvement, Raabe said.

“It’s a little bit of a different type of voter,” he said. “I don’t know whether they go to Scott, but they don’t automatically go to Dixon.”

All three candidates have spent substantial money in attempts to undermine one another. Campaign finance reports filed Friday show more than $1.5 million spent collectively in the last month, most on TV and radio advertising.

John Willis, Maryland’s former secretary of state under Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening, said it will be hard for Vignarajah to undo his repeated public statements and ads about how Dixon represents corruption. Campaign finance records show he spent much of the more than $600,000 in public funds he earned before dropping out of the race.

Even beyond the irony of those claims, Willis said, it’s an overstatement to say Vignarajah’s supporters will follow him to Dixon because of his endorsement. They may break away to each camp in equal measures or perhaps 60-40 in favor of Dixon. But in no scenario do all of them move toward Dixon — and they likely won’t in enough numbers to overcome Scott’s roughly 3,000-vote margin of victory in 2020, Willis said. He added that with the advantage of incumbency, the results this time around are likely to show Scott has grown his margin over Dixon.

If anything, Willis said, Vignarajah’s decision could depress turnout if his supporters really don’t want to vote for another candidate.

“Politicians sometimes have this illusion that they’re commanding an army and whoever’s supporting them will go where they go, and that’s not true,” Willis said. “Voters are not fungible.”