Bank of England warns of business closures and job losses under no-deal Brexit

POOL/AFP via Getty Images
POOL/AFP via Getty Images

A no-deal Brexit is likely to result in business closures and job losses, the governor of the Bank of England has said, sticking to his earlier warning as Britain enters the final fortnight before its planned departure from the EU.

Mark Carney spoke on Tuesday before parliament’s Treasury Committee in a crunch week for Brexit talks. The government has rejected claims a Brexit deal cannot be negotiated in time for the EU leaders’ summit on Thursday. The bloc’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said a deal is still possible this week but added that it looks “more and more difficult”.

As a crash-out exit remains a possibility, Mr Carney said: “There are likely to be circumstances in no deal where certain businesses become uneconomic and they close, so for the person who runs that business or works in that business, they will be directly affected … because of a loss of a market or short-term disruption.”

The central bank governor has previously made similar forecasts. In August, he said a no-deal Brexit would deliver a blow to a “potentially substantial number” of companies.

Even those businesses that survived would not emerge unscathed, he suggested at the time, citing a survey of 10,000 firms by the central bank.

“They think that output will go down, they’ll have to let people go … That is the view of those firms.”

One part of the economy where the impact of the Brexit process has been particularly visible is the volatile exchange rate and Mr Carney predicted more sharp moves ahead.

“Developments over the course of the next several days will have a material impact on the pound,” he said. “The [financial] system can handle those and will reprice those assets, but there will be material moves… A sentence here or there can have a material impact on the level of the pound.”

Analysts polled by Reuters earlier this month forecast that the pound will fall to $1.10-1.19 if Britain leaves the EU without an agreement. That will take a quarter off the currency’s value before the EU referendum in 2016.

Likewise, economists, including those at the Bank of England, have been warning of a stark impact on the broader UK economy from a disorderly Brexit.

Mr Carney said on Tuesday that the bank has some ability to support the economy in that case by bringing interest rates “close to but slightly above zero”.

“We can lower them and we can make sure that [cut] is passed on to households,” he added.

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