After Barclay’s Earnings Beat, Should Investors Reconsider Banking Stocks?

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When looking for compelling investments, investors don’t always think of the banking sector. It doesn’t help that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on July 31. Banks typically experience a decline following cuts as interest income makes up a substantial part of their revenues. When rates are higher, there is a greater degree of margin expansion which is the main indicator of a bank’s profitability.

However, Wall Street Journal writer, Allison Prang, doesn’t necessarily believe this will be the case. “Interest rates are already at super low levels. In 2001, when the Fed began lowering rates, the starting point was 6.5%. A decade earlier an easing campaign began when rates were around 8%. So the Fed’s move Wednesday might not pack as much punch, either in terms of spurring growth or a lending fillip. Unemployment, for example, is already at historically low levels, not on the rise,” she wrote.

Not to mention Barclays PLC (BCS) just reported a second quarter earnings beat on August 1. Its net profit reached £1.03 billion or $1.25 billion, exceeding the £988.87 million consensus estimate. The bank also increased its dividend payment by 20%, with management saying that they would pay an interim dividend of 3 pence per share.

Is this enough to convince investors to reconsider banking stocks? Some analysts and financial bloggers are saying yes. Here are 3 banking stocks that have the potential to withstand rate cuts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

JPM has consistently been one of the top performing domestic banks.

It reported on July 16 that its second quarter profits reached a record high of $9.7 billion, up 16% year-over-year. EPS came in at $2.82, ahead of the Street’s expectations of $2.50. Quarterly revenue was up 4% year-over-year at $29.6 billion, surpassing the $28.9 billion consensus estimate. Its strong quarterly results were in part boosted by a tax benefit that came as a resolution of “certain tax audits”. The benefit is assumed to be a one time occurrence.

While the company lowered its guidance for net interest income from $58 billion to $57.5 billion, it has made significant efforts to diversify its revenue mix.

In May, it announced that it was set to acquire InstaMed, a medical payments firm for $500 million. JPM also launched a digital robo advisor this past month in an effort to get more banking customers to make investments with the firm.

Things only got better on July 4 when it announced a $29.4 billion stock buyback program and its plan to increase dividends from 80 cents per share to 90 cents a share.

Financial blogger, Daniel Martins, is impressed with the bank’s performance in spite of the headwinds it faced. “The large consumer and community banking business continued to thrive, helping the company to deliver impressive return on tangible common equity of 20% that is about as good as it gets in the diversified banking space. And despite sizable investments in technology, the company's overhead expenses continued to drop, this time to a ratio of 55% that is also among the sector best,” he wrote.

Susan Roth Katzke, an analyst at Credit Suisse, also believes JPM can grow even with interest rate cuts. On July 17, she reiterated her Buy rating and raised the price target from $132 to $135, suggesting 16% upside potential. The analyst boasts a 75% success rate and gets a 16% average return per rating.

The bank has a ‘Moderate Buy’ analyst consensus and a $122 average price target, indicating 8% upside potential.

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

The second bank on our list also reported that its Q2 earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations. On July 17, Bank of America reported $7.3 billion in profits, representing an 8% year-over-year gain. Reported EPS was 74 cents compared to the consensus estimate of 71 cents. Its loan portfolio and deposit base saw year-over-year growth of 4% and 6%, respectively. CFO Paul Donofrio did warn investors that net interest income will likely take a hit, with 2019 net interest income growth expected to be cut in half from 6% in 2018.

Management maintains that its core retail banking operations are still producing strong results. “Our commitment to responsible growth resulted in the best quarter and first-half year of earnings in our company’s history. We see solid consumer activity across the board, with spending by Bank of America consumers up five percent this quarter over the second quarter of last year,” CEO Brian Moynihan said.

Also in the stock's favor, famed hedge fund manager, Warren Buffet, just increased his BAC holdings by more than $29 billion on July 25, making him a +10% owner and the largest shareholder. Buffet usually avoids passing the 10% ownership threshold for regulatory reasons. However, his recent decision to ignore this rule suggests that he believes BAC share prices are undervalued.

On July 26, KBW analyst Brian Kleinhanzl, expressed his confidence in the bank’s ability to survive the rate cuts. He upgraded BAC to a Buy while raising his price target from $32 to $36. The analyst believes share prices could rise by 23%. “We expect the bank to benefit from an improved economic outlook after expected interest rate target cuts by the Federal Reserve,” he said.

Financial blogger, Matthew Frankel, adds, “Bank of America has nevertheless had to fight hard in order to keep its competitors at bay, and the recent pause from the Federal Reserve and subsequent inversion of the yield curve has many bank shareholders nervous about the future. Despite those concerns, BAC is innovating to keep up with its peers. Its new Erica digital assistant hopes to lure in younger customers who've been least likely to respect Bank of America's legacy reputation in the aftermath of the financial crisis. With more than 7 million users already, Erica is becoming extremely popular, and being a first-mover could help BAC give customers a reason to walk in its doors rather than going to a competitor.”

The Street remains bullish on BAC. The bank has a ‘Strong Buy’ analyst consensus and a $36 average price target, suggesting 21% upside potential.

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

The last bank on our list carries more risk than the others. Share prices are down 3% in the last five days, with some investors expressing concern that this drop might not be a temporary occurrence.

However, USB did manage to surpass analysts’ expectations for its July 17 Q2 earnings release. EPS reached $1.09, up 7% from the prior-year quarter. Its earnings exceeded the Street’s $1.07 per share estimate. Sales totaled $5.8 billion, also beating the $5.7 billion estimate.

Top financial blogger, Aaron Levitt, points out that USB has an advantage in terms of net interest margins. “Unlike many of the banks reporting this quarter, U.S. Bank didn’t feel such huge pressures to its critical net interest margins. The bank saw the spread between what it pays for deposits and what it can get for loans increased in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year numbers. Not many banks can say that,” he wrote.

The bank has also made significant efforts to expand its fintech products. On March 24, the company announced the launch of its revamped banking app which features mortgage and small-business loan offerings and AI-based personalized insights.

Piper Jaffray analyst, Kevin Barker, thinks USB still has plenty of room to grow thanks to its consistent business strategy and expanding fintech segment. On July 18, he reiterated his Buy rating while lowering his price target from $59 to $58. Despite the price target cut, he still believes share prices could increase by 5% over the next twelve months. The analyst has a 66% success rate and gets an average return of 8% per rating.

The Street has taken a more cautious stance on this banking stock. It has a ‘Hold’ analyst consensus and a $56 average price target, suggesting 1% upside.

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