A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Barrick Gold (GOLD). Shares have lost about 14.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Barrick Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Barrick’s Q1 Earnings In Line With Estimates, Sales Miss

Barrick recorded net earnings (on a reported basis) of $400 million or 22 cents per share in first-quarter 2020, up from $111 million or 6 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share increased 45.5% year over year to 16 cents. The figure came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Barrick recorded total sales of $2,721 million, up around 30% year over year. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,745 million.

Operational Highlights

Total gold production amounted to 1.25 million ounces in the first quarter, down 9% year over year from 1.37 million ounces. Average realized price of gold was $1,589 per ounce in the quarter, up 22% from $1,307 per ounce in the year-ago quarter.

Cost of sales moved up 8% year over year to $1,020 per ounce. All-in sustaining costs rose 16% year over year to $954 per ounce in the quarter.

Copper production increased 8% year over year to 115 million pounds. Average realized copper price was $2.23 per pound, down 27% year over year.

Financial Position

At the end of the first quarter, Barrick had cash and cash equivalents of $3,327 million, up 55% year over year. The company’s total debt was around $5.2 billion at the end of the first quarter compared with $5.5 billion as of Dec 31, 2019.

Net cash provided by operating activities rose 71% year over year to $889 million.

Guidance

For 2020, Barrick now anticipates attributable gold production in the range of 4.6-5 million ounces, down from 4.8-5.2 million ounces it expected earlier. AISC is expected in the range of $920-$970 per ounce, unchanged from the prior view. Cost of sales is expected in the range of $980-$1,030 per ounce, unchanged from previous guidance.

The company continues to expect copper production in the range of 440-500 million pounds at AISC of $2.20-$2.50 per pound and at cost of sales of $2.10-$2.40 per pound.

Capital expenditures are projected between $1,600 million and $1,900 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -9.48% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Barrick Gold has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Barrick Gold has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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