Battleground county? Daniel Cameron backers say Jefferson County could be key to victory

Finding votes in Louisville can be an uphill climb for Republicans.

But party officials backing Attorney General Daniel Cameron in his run for governor believe Jefferson County could actually be the spot that helps swing the election in his favor.

“As the South End goes, so goes this election on Nov. 7,” Cameron told attendees late last month at a campaign event in Fairdale.

No one is expecting all of Jefferson County to flip to red on Election Day, when Cameron faces off with incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear.

Beshear, a Democrat who also served as attorney general, won Louisville by nearly 99,000 votes in the 2019 race against then-Gov. Matt Bevin.

And the city put another Democrat in the mayor’s office less than a year ago, with about 52% of voters propelling political newcomer Craig Greenberg over GOP challenger Bill Dieruf.

But some Cameron supporters believe small gains in some red-leaning parts of Jefferson County could help sink Beshear and put a Republican back in the governor’s office.

Beshear’s margin of victory was just 5,136 votes when he won the race against Bevin, a uniquely unpopular GOP figure in a state with a Republican supermajority in the legislature. And Cameron is the first to note he landed over 100,000 more votes than Beshear that same fall as he ran for attorney general.

“Everything measures up in our favor,” Cameron told the crowd in Fairdale, pointing toward voter registration trends.

Cameron isn't the only Kentucky Republican who sees a path forward in the city. Don Fitzpatrick, chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party, told rally attendees if Beshear is held to no more than 70,000 votes in Jefferson County, the Democrat's time in office will end after one term.

But with Beshear holding a significant lead in most statewide polls, questions remain with the election less than a month away.

Reasons for Cameron optimism

When discussing Cameron vs. Beshear, local GOP supporters are quick to point out their gains last year in the state House of Representatives. Republicans flipped three Louisville seats from blue to red, including two in southwestern Jefferson County.

And in that mayor's race: While ultimately losing to Greenberg, Dieruf, a Republican who had served as Jeffersontown’s mayor for a dozen years, did land 46% of the vote, outperforming his opponent in most precincts in the South End and along the county’s eastern edge.

Dan Seum Jr., who represents Fairdale in Metro Council after defeating Democrat incumbent Mark Fox in last year's election, told local voters those results show Republicans are in a position to swing another election this fall.

"I want you to think of Charlie Daniels’ words — the south is going to do it again," Seum said at last month’s rally. "... We're going to flip this seat, and we're going to put (Cameron) in the governor's seat."

Dieruf said South End voters concerned about a lack of investment in their area have shown they’re more inclined to support new leadership.

“The reason why the southwest did bring so many votes for the Republican mayor is because they feel like they've been neglected and promised for so many years,” Dieruf said. “… They’re also looking to Frankfort for a change, because they still haven’t gotten anything out of Frankfort with all the economic development in the state.”

University of Louisville political science professor Dewey Clayton said Cameron has a key factor working in his favor — he isn’t Bevin.

The former Republican governor had "alienated practically everybody and specifically teachers of all parties" by the time he was up for reelection in 2019, Clayton said. Those teachers turned out on Election Day, and Jefferson County Public Schools alone employs 6,735 teachers.

"That was a big help for Beshear, because they mobilized, and they turned Bevin out, as well," Clayton said. "I don't think that type of animus exists toward Cameron."

Hard-line abortion stance and the Breonna Taylor case

Still, Clayton said Cameron’s push into divisive social issues could alienate more moderate voters.

The areas where the Louisville GOP won last year aren’t overwhelmingly red on paper. Just 39.5% of voters in the three House districts won by the party last year are registered Republicans.

The "unapologetically pro-life" candidate has waffled at times on his stance about adding exceptions for rape and incest to current state law restricting abortion under almost all circumstances.

More than 70% of Jefferson County voters last November were against a proposed amendment to eliminate the right to abortion from the constitution.

Cameron's abortion position may play well in some parts of the state, Clayton said, but it could backfire with voters around Kentucky’s largest city.

"His stance on so many issues — and particularly his sort of culture war, playing that so hard — that might actually motivate people who may have just kind of skipped it to say, 'No, this is too important for us to skip. We need to get out here and make sure Beshear gets the turnout he needs in Jefferson County,'" Clayton said.

And then there’s the Breonna Taylor case, which made Cameron a household name in 2020.

The case exploded in Cameron’s first year as attorney general, with months of protests calling for action against the Louisville Metro Police officers who fired their weapons at Taylor’s apartment the night she was killed.

Although it's been more than three years since he announced just one officer would be indicted (Brett Hankison was accused and later acquitted on wanton endangerment charges over bullets that entered a neighbor’s apartment), he still frequently faces criticism over his handling of the case.

Clayton said while it hasn’t been a central point of Beshear’s campaign, local voters haven't forgotten, especially after the U.S. Department of Justice filed federal charges against Hankison and three other LMPD officers.

"The way he handled it, I think a lot of people felt that was heavy handed and was not really a fair and appropriate process," the professor said. "And subsequent to that, the Feds had to come in and … actually file charges. That was a clear sign that it probably wasn't handled as effectively or efficiently as it should have been."

Cameron has repeatedly called Taylor’s death a “tragedy” but has argued he followed the law. And the effect of the case on Jefferson County voters three years later remains to be seen.

Rachel Roarx, a South End Democrat elected to the legislature last year to represent District 38, said while many people south of downtown Louisville followed developments in 2020 and beyond, the case and related protests didn’t have a daily effect on the area like it did in other parts of Jefferson County.

“In some ways, it’s probably not on the top of the southwest Jefferson County voter’s mind,” she said. “Now, for some households, I would say that probably is one of the issues they would point to for why they made a decision, but overwhelmingly from the masses out here, it’s not talked about in great volume.”

Dieruf believes voters who aren’t backing Cameron due to the Taylor case probably didn’t support him in the first place. His handling of the case, he added, may have helped him shore up support in the law enforcement community — the Kentucky State Fraternal Order of Police, which endorsed Beshear in 2019, is backing Cameron this year.

"I don’t think he’s lost a voting bloc. I think he’s strengthened the voting bloc he has," Dieruf said.

Issues for Louisville's South End voters

Roarx isn't on the ballot this year, but the lifelong South End resident has spent recent months campaigning in her district for Beshear.

Democrats have traditionally had a strong foothold in the South End, she said, but she’s seen a change over the years as voters have strayed from straight tickets to voting “based on the person.” She credits her win to knocking on doors and “showing up for my community in a way that they wanted to be showed.”

She said South Enders "want you to earn their vote. They want you to be present. They want to feel like they have a connection with you and that you're responsive."

The U.S. Census reports Black residents make up 23.2% of the city’s total population, but that figure is significantly lower in most South End neighborhoods, which tend to have a higher white population.

Clayton said despite Cameron’s status as the state’s first Black attorney general, he expects the city’s African American population to vote overwhelmingly for Beshear, “based on not simply because he’s a Republican but based on his stance on a lot of the issues, and particularly the Breonna Taylor incident.”

Cameron's supporters say finding common ground with voters who may be undecided between the two candidates is critical.

Emily Callaway, a Jefferson County Republican who won a seat in the state House last year, said she’s found voters on both sides of the aisle most concerned about "allowing boys in girls' locker rooms, boys in girls' restrooms" during her time canvassing in the South End — an issue Cameron has put at the center of his campaign, and one she believes will resonate in the upcoming election.

"When I was on porches, that was a problem for almost everyone I met. Whether they wave a blue flag, a red flag or a purple flag — those three flags — they were not OK with their granddaughter or their daughter walking into a locker room and being exposed to boys," Callaway told attendees at the Fairdale rally in September. "... That is a common ground we can find with our neighbor next door who may be on the fence."

Roarx said she’s seen her share of voters concerned about “the buzz topics of the year.”

“But the No. 1 issue in the South End that people want to hear you talk about is public safety,” she said. “No. 2 would be economic development. Those are things that people here really care about.”

Roarx won her race last year by 376 votes. She knows turnout can make all the difference on Election Day.

“Your vote absolutely matters. There’s so many people who don’t feel like it does anymore,” she said. “Jefferson County could very easily decide this election. We all know that. It’s really important that Jefferson County shows up and votes this election.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story included an incorrect figure for the percentage of Black residents living in Louisville.

Reach Lucas Aulbach at laulbach@courier-journal.com.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Daniel Cameron looks to south Louisville for votes vs. Andy Beshear