Bavi set to strengthen into a typhoon and threaten Japan, China and the Korean Peninsula

Following Tropical Storm Higos, Tropical Storm Bavi has developed in the West Pacific Ocean.

Bavi formed just east of Taiwan on Saturday morning, local time, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Bavi is known as Igme in the Philippines.

Bavi will move over the warm waters of the East China Sea and will be in an area of light wind shear, or the change in direction and speed of wind in the atmosphere, through Sunday.

The above satellite image shows Tropical Storm Bavi spinning in the East China Sea on Sunday night, Aug. 23. (RAMMB/CIRA)

According to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, the light wind shear and warm waters will provide an environment for the system to strengthen as it tracks across the region this weekend.

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Before this system strengthened into Tropical Storm Bavi on Saturday morning, local time, it brought rounds of heavy rain to the Philippines late last week.

Bavi is expected to continue on a northeastward trajectory just to the west of the Ryukyu Islands into early this week, bringing rounds of heavy rainfall.

Through Monday, bands of heavy rain are forecast to be across the central Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa.

Although the core of heaviest rain and strongest wind is expected to remain to the west of the islands, bands of downpours and strong wind gusts are still expected.

Rainfall totals across the Ryukyu Islands are forecast to reach 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 250 mm (10 inches), which can lead to flash flooding.

"Damaging winds will be possible across the Ryukyu Islands depending on the intensity of the system as it passes by," said Nicholls. Current indications show wind gusts of 80-95 km/h (50-60 mph) are possible that can lead to sporadic power outages and some down tree branches.

Rough seas will also be found across much of the East China Sea as the tropical system passes through the area.

A front moving through eastern China will influence the track of the tropical system. This front is expected to cause Bavi to accelerate to the north into the middle of the week after slowly spinning near the Ryukyu Islands to start the week.

Latest forecast information shows that a track near or just to the west of the Korean Peninsula is most likely.

As such, interests across South Korea, North Korea and northeast China should monitor the path of this system for potential impacts this week.

As Bavi accelerates to the north from Tuesday into Wednesday, heavy rain and strong wind can reach South Korea.

Meteorologists expect Bavi to remain a dangerous storm at this time and it has the potential to bring widespread and significant impacts along its path, including widespread power outages, flooding rain and coastal storm surge flooding.

Rainfall will generally total 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) over the Korean Peninsula. Heavier rainfall totals of 100-200 inches (4-8 inches) can be expected across portions southwestern South Korea and northwestern North Korea, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches).

Wind gust are expected to be the strongest across the western Korean Peninsula where wind gusts of 80-115 km/h (50-70 mph) are expected. Stronger wind gusts ranging between 115-145 km/h (70-90 mph) can be expected near the southwest coast of South Korea, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 190 km/h (120 mph) that is most likely on Jeju Island.

After passing the Korean Peninsula, Bavi can bring the risk for heavy, flooding rainfall across northeastern China and extreme southeastern Russia late in the week.

AccuWeather forecasters are also monitoring Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Storm Marco in the Caribbean. Together these storms can break a record when they move into the Gulf of Mexico.

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