Beacon poll: Democrat Marquita Bradshaw outperforms Rep. Gloria Johnson in Senate matchup

Memphis environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw may have better odds than state Rep. Gloria Johnson at challenging Sen. Marsha Blackburn in the upcoming Tennessee Senate race, according to a statewide poll released Thursday by the Beacon Center of Tennessee, a conservative leaning think-tank.

Bradshaw pulled off a spoiler win in the 2020 Democratic primary, unexpectedly rising to the top of a five-candidate field to challenge Republican Bill Hagerty for Tennessee's other U.S. Senate seat. Bradshaw ultimately lost in the general election.

Blackburn, a Republican incumbent, is entering the race with favorable odds. Per the Beacon poll, she leads Johnson, a Knoxville Democrat, by 20 points, polling 49% to Johnson's 29%. Notably, 23% of voters polled as undecided in this match-up.

But polling indicates Bradshaw could tighten that gap, polling 36% to Blackburn's 48% in a theoretical match-up.

Bradshaw has yet to file an official statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, but she has indicated she plans to again run for the Democratic nomination and is fundraising for the 2024 challenge on her website.

Johnson's political star rose to national prominence this spring after General Assembly Republicans attempted to expel the lawmaker. Johnson's campaign has posted signficant fundraising numbers, reporting $1.3 million in the biggest first quarter haul raised by a Tennessee Democrat since 1982.

Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could perform well

The Beacon Poll indicated spoiler candidates may be popular with Tennesseans: When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was included as a third-party candidate in next year's presidential race, he garnered 19% of the vote, notably eating away at former President Donald Trump's voter base.

In contest between Trump and President Joe Biden, Trump unsurprisingly polled 61% to Biden's 30% in Tennessee. But Trump's lead dropped to 48% to Biden's 23% when Kennedy was included on the ballot.

"While most people don't view Tennessee as a swing state, Kennedy's 19% is going to draw a lot of national attention," Beacon spokesperson Mark Cunningham said. "It is clear from these numbers that Kennedy is going to pull most of his support from voters who would have otherwise supported Trump. This is certainly something the Trump campaign is going to keep an eye on and could become a big issue for the campaign in swing states with razor-thin margins."

That trend is mirrored in some national polling. A new USA Today/Suffolk University Poll this week found Kennedy eating away at Trump's support more than Biden.

Gov. Bill Lee remains popular among Republican voters

Elsewhere in Tennessee politics, 47% of polled voters approved of Gov. Bill Lee's governance, with 25% disapproving.

Predictably, Lee polled highest among Republicans, with 53% approval from GOP voters, and his favorability tanked among Democrats.

The Beacon Center did not poll favorability of state lawmakers, though their summer poll found more Tennesseans disapproved of the state legislature than approved of it.

The Beacon Center poll was conducted between Oct. 5 to 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.79 percentage points.

Among the polls other findings:

Voters split on tax dollars for stadiums

Support for subsidizing sports stadiums with tax dollars barely edged out opposition, with 35% of voters in favor of doing so compared to 34% in opposition.

Which is the most obnoxious SEC fan base?

With football season in full swing, the Beacon Center also polled voters on the pressing matter of which team's fans are the most obnoxious?

A bipartisan group of voters agreed the University of Alabama has the "most obnoxious" SEC fan base, polling at 30%.

The University of Tennessee and University of Florida followed, both pulling 18% of the vote.

The majority of Tennessee voters supported the college athletes new rights to profit from their collegiate careers.

Reach Melissa Brown at mabrown@tennessean.com.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Marquita Bradshaw outperforms Gloria Johnson in Beacon Center poll