Believe it or not, Alvin Kamara’s contract is a win for advanced metrics

If there’s a bigger divide in football today than the one between people heavily involved in the design and use of advanced metrics and people who believe against all available evidence that running backs matter as they did in previous eras, you’d have a hard time finding it. And while the absolute lockdown idea that no running backs matter more than others is the same kind of blanket statement without any actual value that advanced metrics were ostensibly created to debunk in the first place, it’s where most are with the overall concept.

So, you can imagine the number of big brains that exploded on Saturday when the Vikings gave Dalvin Cook a five-year, $63 million contract extension, and the Saints then gave Alvin Kamara a five-year, $75 million extension with $34.3 million in guarantees. The Cook deal also includes a $15.5 million signing bonus, which is the largest in franchise history. And while Cook is a fine running back when healthy, that’s an important caveat. Cook has played in just 29 of a possible 48 regular-season games in his three-year career.

As for Kamara… well, if you look at the raw numbers, this is a weird deal. Selected in the third round of the 2017 draft out of Tennessee, Kamara has proven to be a valuable back in that he can make plays from the backfield, but also can move around the formation as a receiver. That said, his deal puts him in the same neighborhood as Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey, who signed a four-year, $64 million contract extension in April. Selected with the eighth overall pick in 2017. McCaffrey has become the game’s total yardage champion, and it isn’t particularly close. From 2017 through 2019, McCaffrey has 5,443 yards from scrimmage, 413 more yards than Ezekiel Elliott, who ranks second.

As for Kamara? He ranks fifth in total yardage during that time, with 4,476. He’s gone over 1,300 yards from scrimmage in each of his three NFL seasons, but outside of his league-leading 6.1 yards per carry in his rookie season, Kamara doesn’t have any “black type” numbers — a term Bill James came up with to define the number of instances in which a player has led the league in any statistical category. James’ term was designed for baseball players, and specifically for Hall of Fame arguments, but it’s worth using here. Kamara has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season. McCaffrey has two, and in 2019, he became the third player in NFL history after Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to gain 1,000 yards in a season in both both rushing and receiving.

Yes, Kamara has been more of a rotational back, which takes his numbers down. And per Sports Info Solutions, there is a value that Kamara has presented in his absence that makes you think that the Saints are not only planning to use him more often in 2020 and beyond, but that they’ve seen the splits with and without Kamara, and that’s why they don’t want him going anywhere anytime soon.

Last season, the Saints faced a light box on 14% of their offensive plays when Kamara wasn’t on the field. That rate shot up to 31% when he was on the field. That’s situational to a degree, but it also defines how much opposing teams rate Kamara as a receiver. The team’s passing EPA (Expected Points Added) without Kamara was 0.12, as opposed to 0.12 when he was on the field. New Orleans’ overall completion percentage went from 69.0 to 73.6 when Kamara was in the game, and Drew Brees especially benefited from Kamara’s presence.

Without Kamara on the field last season, Brees completed 71.6 of his 141 attempts for 955 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. With Kamara on the field, Brees completed 75.8 of his 213 attempts for 1,844 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception.

Brees’ EPA per attempt without Kamara? 0.16. With Kamara? 0.36. That is a major bump. Now, Kamara isn’t a deep threat per se, but when he’s on the field, better things happen in the passing game.

As for his rushing ability? Well, last season per Pro Football Focus, Kamara created 42 missed tackles on his 171 rushing attempts, and he had 10 runs of 15 or more yards, as well.

Alvin Kamara is not your traditional bell-cow running back. Or, at least, he hasn’t been. But when the Saints tell you with this contract extension that they see something in him beyond the traditional stats, they might just be onto something.