I Believe this Year is a Year of Victory — opinion
I see three resources that Russia has a limited supply of.
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The first shortage is a human one. Any war requires professionals to be successful. The Russians lost their military elite in droves when they marched headlong into Kyiv’s defenses in February, March, and April last year. For example, in Hostomel, they lost an elite paratrooper unit, the preparation of which took 10-15 years. Many such "adventures" happened to similar units. Moreover, we have made many Russian pilots incapable of flying, which is also a resource that is difficult to restore in a year or two.
The second resource is high-tech weapons. Of course, sanctions will not allow stopping the supply of chips to Russia completely, but they are not able to produce missiles in sufficient quantity. This is already visible in the decreased density of shelling. They have dipped far into their missile stockpiles and have depleted some types to 10-12% of pre-war levels. Their strategic reserves are probably at about 30%. Someone will pay for it very soon. The only thing they have enough is the S-300, there are 6,000 or more of them, and they are anti-aircraft missiles, but they use them on a ballistic trajectory and are able to terrorize Kharkiv and other border towns.
The third resource - fortunately, they also are beginning to have ammunition hunger.
We monitor their shots from different types of heavy artillery - their millimeters and calibers. Earlier, they poured up to 60,000 shells on our heads. The front line has undoubtedly narrowed, but they also began to hit less, only 20-30 thousand per day. Intelligence reports and our partners confirm they are running to North Korea, China, and other countries for artillery shells and armored vehicles.
I am convinced that the arms industry will become the number one business.
Earlier, many European countries made the unpleasant discovery that they did not have weaponry in their warehouses. If they did not have them, they were of low quality. I often discovered that this or variant of weapon was not given to us because it was not ready. Europeans are responsible for correcting this.
That is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says in all his speeches - give Ukraine everything you have from your warehouses to repel the enemy. If you do not help Ukraine win now, Russia will come to you, and you will still have nothing to fight with, so invest in Ukraine. He speaks very aptly and makes the right calls.
Today, almost all European countries have launched their defense industries for production and are solving two tasks — to both help us and to restore their stocks so as not to lose the level of their own defense capabilities. Many countries have been living with a pacifist perception of the world, with a philosophy of prolonged peace. For example, Germany reduced its army several times in 20 years. There was an illusion that no one would attack. We are inside Europe, we are surrounded by friends, and we trade with the Russians. Everything has changed for us since 2014. This year was decisive for our partners.
I am convinced that the arms industry will become the number one business. Each country will invest in modern technologies, modern weapons, and the replenishment of stocks. I do not know of a single European country, except for one whose president dreams of cheap Russian gas, which wouldn’t expand its military production. Everyone should understand that even after the Ukrainian victory, after this war and the peace restoration, creating a new security architecture in Europe is an urgent issue. The Russians, unfortunately, will not fly into space. They will remain and will hold false thoughts about revenge in their heads, so it is necessary for Ukraine and all countries of the civilized modern world to prepare for it.
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Regarding the window of opportunity for Ukraine until autumn. From a military point of view, the window of opportunity is defined by our maximum preparation for a counteroffensive and a clear understanding of what we want to do tactically and strategically, as well as how we will capitalize on the results of our actions. Last summer, I was worried that this "Ukraine fatigue" had appeared and was accumulating in the West. But then there were our counteroffensives in the Kharkiv direction and the liberation of Kherson. People in the West realized that the morale, spirit, and bravery of Ukrainians were so high that they just needed to be strengthened with weapons. Then the Russians would lose this war. This is what many people want.
For example, the Swedes, if I am not mistaken, 98% of them are for the victory of Ukraine, and Norwegians and Danes - are 90% supportive, which is fantastic. The same thing is happening in the United States. To tell you honestly, I was worried about Italy. I did not know what the new Italian government would be like, I was afraid we would lose support, but we see now that Meloni's government is pro-Ukrainian. So, yes, during the American primaries and races, the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric will be visible from some politicians who dream of doing business with the Kremlin as usual. But, I think the candidates supporting Ukraine's victory will win. The United States is a significant partner in this victory, and this victory is entirely achievable.
After this war, we will assuredly be in the European security structures. We will no longer stand alone. Our most valuable asset is the presence of various modern weapons in our military, the mastery of these weapons by our military, and the ability to use them in actual combat, not in some computer games or in training. Our key advantage is the ability to use these weapons against the Russian Federation, NATO's real enemy, as recognized by NATO’s Madrid Strategic Concept from last month. We are the only country in the world with significant combat experience in defeating the Russians.
By using the weapons of our partners, we can achieve the interoperability of these weapons. Therefore, the NATO countries will be interested in filling us with these or other systems. The defense industries of the NATO countries will compete about who will be the leading supplier of these weapons, as well as their provision, repair, and maintenance.
For the taxpayers of these countries, the key question should be whose battle tank will be the primary one, whose combat plane will be the primary one, whose combat artillery will be the primary one, whose sniper rifle, grenade launcher, anti-aircraft missile system will be the primary ones in their use for the victory by Ukraine. Because this is what will determine mass production of the future and, let's be honest, where the profits will go.
This is the largest war since World War II, with all non-nuclear weapons used state against state. But first, it is a war of resources. Russia’s resources are draining. Ours are, as well, but we have the Ramstein Club, as I call it. It's more than NATO. It's more than 50 countries that already want our victory and invest in it and believe it is realistic. Therefore, it is a war of the Western world's resources against those of the Russian Federation.
The second is the informational component. This war cannot last long because the world knows about its crimes - about Bucha, Irpin, Izyum, Mariupol, and Balakliya. People feel emotionally involved in this war and feel they can influence it. Though, I'm not even talking about the modern technology which allows for precision strikes and balances the lack of manpower. With all of this in mind, I believe this year is the year of victory.
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