MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 257.

Bellator 257 takes place Friday at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

Vadim Nemkov (13-2 MMA, 5-0 BMMA)

Vadim Nemkov

Staple info:

• Height: 6'0" Age: 28 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76"

• Last fight: TKO win over Ryan Bader (Aug. 21, 2020)

• Camp: Fedor Team (Russia)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info: + Bellator light heavyweight champion + Multiple combat sambo championships ^ World, Russian and European titles + Judo black belt + 9 knockout victories + 2 submission wins + 8 first-round finishes + KO power + Aggressive pace and pressure + Fast hand and foot speed + Solid boxing ability + Hard leg kicks + Strong inside the clinch + Excellent takedown ability ^ In the open or inside clinch + Good transitional grappler ^ Accurate ground strikes

Phil Davis (22-5 MMA, 9-2 BMMA)

Staple info:

• Height: 6'2" Age: 26 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78"

• Last fight: Decision win over Phil Davis (Sept. 11, 2020)

• Camp: Azteca Boxing Club (San Diego, Calif.)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info: + Former Bellator light heavy champion + 4x Division I All-American wrestler + NCAA wrestling champion 2008 (197 lbs.) + Bellator light heavyweight grand prix winner (2015) + 6 knockout victories + 5 submission wins + 6 first-round finishes + Consistent pace and pressure + Improved boxing ability + Diverse kicking acumen + Excellent wrestling ability ^ In the open or against the fence + Superb transitional grappler ^ Rides, strikes and submissions +/- 3-1 in rematches

Point of interest: Striking the second time around

The main event for Bellator 257 features an intriguing installment in the promotion's grand prix between two men who are very familiar with one another. In the first meeting between [autotag]Vadim Nemkov[/autotag] and [autotag]Phil Davis[/autotag], we witnessed the now-champion Nemkov slightly outwork Davis in what was ultimately a competitive first two frames. However, come the third round, Nemkov appeared to fatigue down the stretch as he made poor wrestling choices that led him to negative positions, almost costing him the fight. Although Davis’ takedown threats will still be looming this time around, the former Bellator champ has continued to make strides in his striking since their initial encounter. Always partial to playing on the outside, Davis has long insulated himself through his long-range kicking game. Carrying an almost preternatural sense for distance, Davis has been able to utilize an array of kicks to keep his opposition at bay and help dictate the terms of the fight. In recent years, Davis has quietly upgraded his boxing skills with the help of Azteca Boxing Club, implementing prodding shots and feints to his repertoire. Said looks have subsequently allowed Davis to land sneaky left hooks that feed nicely into his kicking game, as we’ve seen the 36-year-old score more knockouts as of late. That said, Davis’ propensity to stick around on the feet longer than he has to could be problematic against a fast and dangerous foe like Nemkov. Despite coming from a strong base in combat sambo, Nemkov offers a lot more than the casting punches that are typically associated with stylists from his side of the world. Unlike his mentor, Fedor Emelianenko, Nemkov utilizes a lot more jabs and straight punches in his repertoire – though he is not beyond unleashing power shots from the rear once establishing his timing and rhythm. Taking a more Western boxing approach also allows Nemkov to have a lot more level-changing opportunities in the takedown department. When feeling in stride, the Stary Oskol product will continue to break regional stereotypes by attaching hard, Thai-style leg kicks to his combos and advances. Although Nemkov does offer the traditional competencies off of the lead side that a lot of Russian and Eastern European kickboxers show, it’s clear that the 28-year-old reserves most of his damaging efforts for power-sided attacks. Nemkov might be able to change the course of this contest early with leg kicks, but he’ll still need to mind the level-changing threats that he could draw out from Davis. Next point of interest: Return of the mat?

Point of interest:Return of the mat?

Considering the success Davis had on the mat last time, many will be wondering if the former Nittany Lion will return to his wrestling roots for this rematch. An All-American wrestler from Penn State who won an NCAA title in 2008, Davis’ folk-style sensibilities quickly translated over to MMA, as he immediately found himself swimming with the sharks. Thankfully for Davis, he showed the creativity and technical wherewithal to capitalize on his positional dominance. One of my top 5 mat wrestlers in MMA, Davis seamlessly uses ride positions to flow into further methods of control. Whether Davis is hitting cradles to counter scrambles or collapsing posts by sucking in wrists, the 13-year pro is no stranger to snatching up submissions but is perfectly content with playing it safe positionally, as well. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1382035284385099776?s=20 Although I wish Davis was a bit more aggressive with his takedown game, he has proven that he can still competently hit shots both in the open and against the fence. Davis seems to do his best work when chaining off of a single, as it often allows him a path to a bodylock – a position which Davis celebrates in the form of relentless mat returns. However, as we saw in their first meeting, Nemkov is no slouch from the tie-ups, and Davis will need to respect the Russian's grappling offerings (especially early). Indoctrinated into sambo since the age of 7, Nemkov has gone on to earn European, Russian and World titles in combat sambo as an adult. Though the judo black belt is obviously competent with clinch takedowns given his experience with gi jackets, Nemkov appears to have a bit of a preference for more traditional wrestling shots in the open. Nemkov seems to have a rock-solid first layer of offense and defense for takedowns, often looking to hit inside or outside trip reversals after hoisting opposition off of his hips. And even against acclaimed wrestlers, Nemkov shows no fear in regards to shooting doubles to ensure a strong close to the frame. That said, I’m not sure how much of the wrestling traffic Nemkov will be looking to initiate in this matchup considering the precarious positions it costed him back at Bellator 209. Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction

Point of interest: odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Nemkov -200 and Davis +170 as of this writing. Although I came into both this tournament and matchup favoring Nemkov to win, I find myself – even as I write this – being swayed in the opposite direction (despite picking Nemkov for the first fight and calling him a divisional dark horse for years now). Sure, Nemkov should have a distinct speed edge at this point of their careers, and no one should be too shocked if the young Russian champion is able to adjust his pace and approach to more consistently punish Davis' legs and defend shots down the stretch. But between Nemkov's suspect gas tank and the fact that Davis has still yet to be stopped or submitted as a professional, I have pause picking the odds-on favorite for what feels like a trap fight with "The Tortoise and the Hare" intangibles attached. As we saw in their initial meeting, Nemkov should have the speed and power edge early, as I suspect he'll also be very difficult to take down for the first half of the fight. But if Nemkov fails to either put Davis away or severely debilitate a leg by the third round, then I believe that the veteran in Davis will be able to take over the fight as the proven five-round fighter with superior mat wrestling. I know Nemkov has spent past camps training with freestyle wrestling talents like Magomedkhan Magomedov (2018 junior world champion in men’s 97 kg.) and other representatives of Russia, but I'm not sure how well that style of wrestling stacks up to the transitional layers that fighters who come from folkstyle inherently have built-in. I would argue that Davis' folkstyle base and riding preferences offer him more options in regards to control positions within the wrestling roadmap of MMA – particularly when posed against other wrestling stylists who favor things like tripoding to return to their base. Ultimately, this is a pick on principle, as it can be very inadvisable to base picks on what has yet to be proven in a fight. Nemkov may have the higher ceiling overall, but I still believe Davis has enough to run this race considering the slow burn of his career trajectory and ability to avoid serious damage. So, until Nemkov can show consistent secondary layers to his grappling and answers the questions surrounding his stamina, I feel forced to pick the more proven party (who is seldom seen shook or hurt in his fights) to pull away down the stretch.

Prediction: Davis by decision

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