Last week, you might have seen that Belvoir Group PLC (LON:BLV) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to UK£0.96 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of UK£19m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Belvoir Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£0.13 per share, a notable 14% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the two analysts covering Belvoir Group provided consensus estimates of UK£13.7m revenue in 2020, which would reflect a disturbing 29% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 65% to UK£0.047 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£22.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.14 in 2020. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Belvoir Group's prospects following the latest results, administering a large cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
The consensus price target fell 16% to UK£1.87, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 29% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.8% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Belvoir Group, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Belvoir Group is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Belvoir Group going out as far as 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Belvoir Group you should be aware of.
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