Ben Upton breaks down tournament outlook for Southern Miss, rest of Sunbelt Conference

The Sun Belt Conference is nearing the end of its first regular season as a 14-team baseball league and the results have lived up to the hype that began spreading last summer.

The league has vaulted into its spot as the fifth-best conference in college baseball in terms of average RPI, according to WarrenNolan.com, and sits ahead of the Big Ten, Conference USA and the American Conference.

The true measure of the SBC’s newfound strength will come on May 29 when the Field of 64 is selected for the NCAA tournament. The league stuffed four teams into Regionals a year ago, a precursor for the competitive season that would follow this year.

Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina are virtual locks for postseason play this time around, but the conference could sneak in as many as five teams with a bevy of depth in the middle of the league.

For an expert look at what the NCAA tournament could like for the SBC and the Golden Eagles, we turn to Ben Upton of 11Point7: The College Baseball Podcast.

The 11Point7 podcast is one of the top-rated and most listened to podcasts for college baseball on Apple Podcasts and the site provides expert coverage of the entire collegiate baseball landscape.

This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

Question: How has this loaded up Sun Belt Conference altered baseball’s landscape, if at all?

Ben Upton: I think we all saw this coming after last year when Southern Miss was hosting a regional. So coming into the season, the Sun Belt had, like, super high expectations of being probably the fourth or fifth best conference in college baseball just because of the depth. And it really hasn’t let us down. In my opinion, this is my favorite conference to keep up with on a weekly basis.

Q: What are your thoughts on how competitive this 10-team tournament is shaping up to be right now?

Upton: I think I’ve tweeted about it a few times. It’s a 10-team tournament, when there’s 11 teams that are more than qualified to get into the tournament, so one of the teams is going to be left at home. And traditionally the Sun Belt tournament has had a flair for dramatics, like lower seeds coming in and winning the championship, so it’s going to be super competitive.

There’s probably going to be some drama involved because these teams don’t like each other. I think we’re gonna see a lot of upsets and maybe a team that has no chance of getting into the NCAA tournament, maybe winning it all and getting that automatic qualifier.

Q: What do you see as the ceiling for the Sun Belt in terms of how many teams can reach the NCAA Regionals? What’s the most realistic number?

Upton: The ceiling is two teams hosting a regional. And I would say realistically, just because every year there’s stolen bids throughout conferences, I would say four teams in the tournament. I would say the max is five but that’s highly unlikely.

You’re going to see one regional host, almost guaranteed. That’s probably going to be Coastal Carolina. Southern Miss can play their way in to regional hosts very easily. You’re probably going to end up with four teams. It’s going to be those two and Texas State or Troy.

Maybe there’s a different automatic qualifier, somebody like a Georgia Southern or App State or James Madison, whoever wins the tournament. I’m predicting four teams.

Q: Southern Miss has sat just outside of host range most of the season. What can it do to break into the top-16?

Upton: When you look at it, another team that is right there on the bubble to host a regional is Dallas Baptist, who Southern Miss swept earlier this year, which that alone should put them ahead of Dallas Baptist hosting a regional.

I think Southern Miss is right there. There’s about four teams battling for two regional hosting spots and I think Southern Miss is going to need a little bit of help. They’re going to need Kentucky to lose those its last two series, I think. As far as resume goes, Southern Miss, if they win the last six regular season games and make it to the conference tournament finals, I think you’re going to see them get a regional bid.

Q: If Southern Miss doesn’t host, what are its most likely destinations?

Upton: The good news for Southern Miss, if they are a two-seed, they’re not going to be sent to Baton Rouge just because they’re going to be one of the higher two seeds. There’s a chance they get sent down to Miami, or Oklahoma state’s an option, as well. Kentucky’s up there, as well.

I don’t think they’re going to be sent to Baton Rouge, which is what all Southern Miss fans like to hear. It really just depends on how everything else shakes out. There’s a chance it can be sent to the West Coast. We saw it last year with Texas, they got sent to Stanford. This year it would be more like a Southern Miss getting sent to an Oregon State or an Arizona State, which is a possibility.

Q: How much of a legitimate postseason contender do you see Coastal Carolina as?

Upton: The biggest advantage that they’re gonna have and that they’re gonna need is being a national seed, which would require them to win the Sun Belt regular season and then also win the Sun Belt tournament.

I think that’s the only way the committee’s going to get them a national seed. If they do have homefield advantage in the Regionals and Super Regionals, they’re going to be really tough to knock off just based off their home and away splits.

Q: If the Sun Belt were an order from Cook Out, what do you think it would be?

Upton: So when you look at the Sun Belt, you automatically have to upgrade the drink to a milkshake and you’re looking at a milkshake that plays in the springtime. They have a really good watermelon that comes out toward the spring into the summer. Which I think parallels well with how good this Sun Belt baseball conference is.

As far as the entree goes, you have to go with something with a lot of meat, right? Because this conference is deep and it is very filling. So you gotta go with the double burger. So with the two sides, one of them has to have some spice to it. Because I think this conference, going across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, like you got to have some flair and some spice.

So you gotta go with the cajun chicken wrap as a side option. As my second side option, the Sun Belt Conference has a lot of guys that are throwing 95-96 miles an hour, velocity is way up as far as what we’re used to seeing. So you’re gonna go with the cheddar bites.

You can follow Ben Upton on Twitter at @Ben_upton5 and 11Point7 at @11point7.