Bengals vs. Titans: 4 things to watch and a prediction in playoffs

The Cincinnati Bengals, after securing their first playoff win in 31 years, hope to make it two in a row and advance to the AFC title game with a win over the Tennessee Titans in Saturday’s divisional-round encounter.

Making that happen won’t be easy, of course. As the top seed in the AFC, those Titans had a week of rest and will return superstar running back Derrick Henry to the fold.

Unlike last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders, this isn’t a regular-season rematch for the Bengals, so it’s an uncommon opponent on the road in the cold with the season on the line.

Here are some key details to watch for and a prediction.

Protecting Burrow

(AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

The Bengals were shockingly good at this a week ago in the win over the Raiders. In fact, despite starting a backup right tackle and going against an elite name like Maxx Crosby, Cincinnati’s line had a pass-block win rate of 73.9 percent, up from the season average of 48.8. The Titans present another huge test, though. Jeffery Simmons in the middle is one of the league’s most dominant linemen. Harold Landry from the outside has 12 sacks and Denico Autry isn’t a slouch with his nine. If the line can overperform again, it would likely mean Joe Burrow can help his team get the lead and keep it that way.

Derrick Henry

(Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports)

The Titans have tried to play it coy in the week leading up to the game, but it’s obvious Henry will get 20-plus touches with a shot at the AFC title game on the line. He ran for 937 yards and 10 scores in eight games this year, putting him on track for his 2,027 and 17 over 16 games last year before an injury derailed his season. Even last week, the Bengals coughed up 83 yards on 13 carries (6.4 average) to Josh Jacobs. The best bet to stopping Henry might be jumping ahead with a lead and removing him from the gameplan. The Titans will try to do the inverse, riding him to control the pace and making Burrow watch from the sidelines.

The QB difference

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Burrow’s playing like an MVP right now. Over his last three games, he’s thrown for 525, 446 and 244 yards in wins over the Ravens, Chiefs and Raiders, respectively, with a total 10 touchdowns and no picks over that span. He’s all the way back to pre-injury mobility and is very accurate all over the field. His counterpart, Ryan Tannehill, has thrown 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this year and he has just two multi-touchdown games over his last nine outings. Perhaps most interestingly, Burrow’s been electric in big-game moments all the way back to his LSU days. Tannehill has played in four NFL playoff games, going 2-2 with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Which quarterback can take control might just decide the game very early.

Ja'Marr Chase

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The Titans let up 245.2 passing yards per game during the regular season, a bottom-eight number. Granted, they only allowed 20.8 points per game on average, a top-six number. But some of that pass defense could be exploitable by Ja’Marr Chase, the rookie now up to 1,571 yards so far, including 116 on nine catches with seven first downs in the win over the Raiders. If the Titans can’t slow a guy putting on a Davante Adams-esque show every week, it’s bad news for them and a sign the Bengals can run away with it.

Prediction

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The Bengals are better than the Titans at quite a few positions. They’ve got the best edge rusher about to take the field (Trey Hendrickson), as well as the best defensive tackle (D.J. Reader). There’s an argument to be made about wide receiver units, too.

And they’ve got the better quarterback, which is arguably most important when picking any game, let alone a playoff game.

While Henry might be the exception to the rule, there’s a reason the growing conversation is that running backs aren’t all that important. If Burrow can blitz his way to a lead after coming out of the gates aggressive, it negates that impact and forces the Titans out of their preferred gameplan.

And while it’s not the biggest thing in the world, it’s hard to not mention Burrow bested these Titans last year as a rookie during one of the team’s four wins all season. To say the Bengals have improved across the board would be a gross understatement.

The Titans are very, very good and match up well with the Bengals. But if Burrow’s still slinging it hot like he has been, the Bengals might get out in front and never look back.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Titans 20

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